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吉比特(603444)2024年报及2025年一季报点评:新游表现亮眼 后续储备有望年内上线

Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 3.696 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.69%; net profit attributable to shareholders was 945 million yuan, down 16.02%; and net profit excluding non-recurring items was 877 million yuan, down 21.61% [1] - In Q1 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 1.136 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.47%; net profit attributable to shareholders was 283 million yuan, up 11.82%; and net profit excluding non-recurring items was 275 million yuan, up 38.71% [1] Game Development and Launches - The company has 9 main operating products in 2024, with the game "Wen Dao" maintaining stable revenue since its launch 19 years ago; however, mobile games like "Wen Dao Mobile" and "Yi Nian Xiao Yao" have seen a natural decline in revenue [2] - The new game "Wen Jian Chang Sheng" launched on January 2, 2025, contributing 363 million yuan in revenue in Q1 and maintaining an average ranking of 52 in the App Store [2] - Upcoming games include "Zhang Jian Chuan Shuo" (code M88), which has obtained a license and is expected to launch in H1 2025, and "Jiu Mu Zhi Ye," a Three Kingdoms-themed SLG game, planned for launch in H2 2025 [2] Dividend Policy - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 35.00 yuan per 10 shares for 2024, totaling 251 million yuan; the total cash dividend and buyback for 2024 is expected to be around 770 million yuan, accounting for 81.46% of net profit [3] - For 2025, the company intends to distribute cash dividends based on undistributed profits and current performance, with the total not exceeding 100% of the net profit for the period [3] Profitability and Cost Management - In 2024, the company's gross margin was 87.86%, down 0.67 percentage points; net margin was 31.90%, down 3.01 percentage points [3] - In Q1 2025, gross margin increased by 1.65 percentage points to 90.89%, and net margin increased by 1.15 percentage points to 33.39%; the period expense ratio decreased by 2.06 percentage points to 56.39% [3] Investment Outlook - The company has bright prospects with new game launches and has adjusted profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting operating revenues of 4.127 billion, 4.476 billion, and 4.761 billion yuan, and net profits of 1.083 billion, 1.191 billion, and 1.294 billion yuan respectively [4] - The expected EPS for 2025-2027 is 15.03, 16.53, and 17.96 yuan per share, with corresponding PE ratios of 16, 15, and 13 times based on the closing price on May 10, 2025 [4]