关税恐慌退潮，美股反攻大势定了？大摩Wilson警告：现在乐观为时过早

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that despite improved sentiment in the U.S. stock market, it is premature to declare an all-clear signal, as key factors supporting the rebound have not fully materialized [1] - Morgan Stanley's strategist Michael Wilson identifies four key factors for the U.S. stock market's rebound: optimism over a trade agreement with China, stable earnings expectations, a more dovish stance from the Federal Reserve, and a ten-year Treasury yield below 4% [1] - The ten-year Treasury yield has exceeded 4.4%, and Morgan Stanley believes that a yield above 4.5% will pose a valuation challenge [1] Group 2 - The U.S. Department of Commerce announced that the U.S. and China have canceled a total of 91% of tariffs, which has led to a rise in S&P 500 futures and risk assets [1] - During the earnings season, tariff issues have been a focal point for companies, with a record number of mentions in earnings calls, leading about 30 companies to withdraw or suspend earnings guidance due to tariff uncertainties [2] - The S&P 500 index has broken through the previous resistance level of 5500 points and returned to the range of 5500-6100 points, with the next significant technical test being the convergence of the 200-day and 100-day moving averages at 5750-5800 [2]