千亿美元AI野心受阻！软银、OpenAI“星际之门”遭遇三重危机

Core Insights - SoftBank's ambitious $100 billion AI infrastructure investment plan, "Stargate," is facing significant obstacles due to tariff threats from the Trump administration, leading to stalled financing negotiations [1] - The plan was announced in January by SoftBank's founder Masayoshi Son and OpenAI co-founder Sam Altman, with intentions to deploy $100 billion immediately and potentially expand to $500 billion over time [1] - As of now, SoftBank has not established a financing template or engaged in detailed discussions with banks, private equity investors, or asset management firms [1] Group 1 - The initial discussions with lenders and alternative asset management firms began earlier this year, but no deals have been reached due to economic volatility and the emergence of cheaper AI services [2] - Trump's trade policies have severely disrupted financial forecasts for AI, with rising capital costs and concerns about a potential global recession affecting data center demand [2] - Data center construction costs are projected to increase by 5% to 15% due to higher tariffs on components, compounding the existing cost pressures on AI infrastructure projects [2] Group 2 - The emergence of more efficient and cheaper AI models, such as China's DeepSeek, raises concerns about the long-term profitability of projects associated with OpenAI [3] - Investors are beginning to realize that AI models are not a scarce resource, leading to price wars that could erode profit margins and diminish the commercial rationale for large-scale data center construction [3] Group 3 - Despite the challenges, SoftBank is continuing to push forward with the Stargate plan, having formed a dedicated team of 20 to 30 people within its Vision Fund to accelerate the rollout of large-scale data centers [4] - Supporters of the Stargate plan include Oracle and Mubadala's MGX, with SoftBank seeking backing from banks and debt investors, including pension funds and insurance companies [4] - The plan involves SoftBank providing a small equity stake of about 10% to 20%, accompanied by substantial debt financing, including mezzanine debt and preferred loans [4] - Uncertainty is impacting negotiations, and the stagnation may indicate a cooling of the overall AI infrastructure boom, potentially affecting the recent surge in tech stocks driven by AI enthusiasm [4]