Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a strong rebound in the U.S. stock market, with the S&P 500 index rising 3.3% and successfully breaking through the critical 200-day moving average, marking the first time in over 30 trading days that it has surpassed this long-term trend indicator [1] - The 200-day moving average is widely regarded as a dividing line between bull and bear markets, indicating that prolonged trading below this level suggests weak market trends and diminished investor confidence [1] - Historical data from SentimenTrader shows that when the S&P 500 index hovers below the 200-day moving average for over 30 trading days after a three-year high, the subsequent performance is often positive, with a median gain of 4.1% over the next three months and a median return of double-digit growth over the following 12 months [1][3] Group 2 - The recent market rebound was catalyzed by the announcement of a 90-day pause on certain tariffs between the U.S. and China, which led to significant gains in major indices, including a 2.8% increase in the Dow Jones Industrial Average and a 4.4% rise in the Nasdaq Composite, officially exiting the "bear market" territory [4] - There is ongoing debate regarding the sustainability of this rally, with some market strategists emphasizing the importance of maintaining the 200-day moving average as a potential turning point for reaching new highs, while cautioning that failure to hold this level may indicate a short-term emotional rebound rather than a lasting recovery [4] - The potential for an economic recession remains a concern, as it could lead to long-term declines driven by shrinking corporate profits and household incomes, although the current situation has not yet fully entered this phase [4]
标普500重回200日均线之上 美股牛市回来了吗
Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-05-12 22:26