TF Securities(SH:601162) 智通财经网·2025-05-13 00:02Core Viewpoint - The report from Tianfeng Securities indicates that policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate industry are expected to take effect soon, with a consensus on market bottoming out and a smoother logic for short-term policy speculation and long-term valuation recovery [1][6]. Group 1: Policy and Market Dynamics - The People's Bank of China announced a 0.1 percentage point reduction in policy interest rates, which is expected to boost demand and stabilize the market [2]. - The adjustment of the personal housing provident fund loan interest rate by 0.25 percentage points is anticipated to enhance buyer confidence and support industry demand [2]. - The narrowing of the yield spread between rental returns and loan rates is expected to further stabilize housing prices and market sentiment [2]. Group 2: Financing and Development Models - The National Financial Regulatory Administration plans to introduce a series of financing regulations to support new real estate development models, including measures for housing loans and urban renewal [3]. - Policies aimed at expanding the scope of guaranteed housing re-loans are expected to enhance local government and bank participation in inventory reduction [3]. - The transition to "existing home sales" is gaining attention, with over 30 provinces piloting related policies, indicating a shift towards protecting buyer interests and promoting healthy industry development [4]. Group 3: Market Performance and Trends - New home sales decreased by 19.84% year-on-year, while second-hand home sales fell by 12.90%, indicating a slowdown in market activity [5]. - The land market also showed a decline, with a 10.71% year-on-year decrease in transaction area, reflecting ongoing challenges in the real estate sector [5]. - The performance of real estate indices has been mixed, with the Shenwan Real Estate Index rising by 0.41%, but still underperforming compared to the CSI 300 Index [5]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Tianfeng Securities suggests prioritizing investments in non-state-owned enterprises benefiting from debt resolution, policy support, and demand improvement [6][7]. - Key investment targets include quality non-state-owned enterprises like Longfor Group and China Overseas Land & Investment, as well as local state-owned enterprises and leading central enterprises [7]. - The report also highlights opportunities in quality property management and intermediary firms, indicating a diversified approach to investment in the real estate sector [7].