关税压力缓和，航运需求激增在即，但美国通胀恐仍难缓解

Core Insights - The preliminary trade agreement between the US and China is expected to lead to a surge in shipping activity over the next 4-6 weeks as US importers rush to clear backlogged orders [1][3] - Despite the temporary tariff reprieve, US consumers should prepare for ongoing high prices, particularly as small businesses continue to struggle with unpredictable trade policies [1][4] Group 1: Shipping and Logistics - ITS Logistics anticipates a significant increase in container shipments, with clients in China ready to ship thousands of containers [3] - Shipping costs are projected to rise, with estimates suggesting a potential 20% increase in freight rates from China to the US West Coast due to the surge in demand [3] Group 2: Consumer Goods and Pricing - The CEO of the American Apparel and Footwear Association noted that while the tariff pause is a positive development, it will not prevent price increases, as 30% of remaining tariffs will still impact consumer costs during back-to-school and holiday seasons [4] - Consumer goods companies typically operate with a gross margin of 40-50%, and the remaining tariffs could challenge their profitability [4] Group 3: Uncertainty and Business Challenges - The unpredictability of trade policies remains a significant challenge for many businesses, complicating operations and long-term planning [5] - Concerns are raised about rapidly depleting inventories in key industries, with warnings that some retailers may see stock levels drop below 10% by mid to late June, potentially leading to a repeat of supply shortages experienced during the COVID-19 pandemic [5]