张尧浠：基本面利好已到顶峰、金价将延续宽幅震荡周期

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices experienced a significant decline, influenced by geopolitical developments and trade agreements, leading to a bearish outlook in the short term [1][3][7]. Price Movement - On May 12, gold opened lower at $3294.82 per ounce, fluctuating between $3265 and $3285, with a daily high of $3305.91 before closing at $3234.72, down $94.13 or 2.83% from the previous close of $3328.85 [1][3]. - The price is expected to remain volatile, with potential support levels at $3160 and resistance at $3290 [3][12]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. dollar index showed strength, which may exert downward pressure on gold prices, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is also trending upwards, indicating a potential bullish outlook for yields [5][7]. - Upcoming economic data, including the NFIB Small Business Confidence Index and the U.S. CPI, could influence gold prices, with expectations of weak confidence potentially benefiting gold [5][8]. Geopolitical Factors - Recent developments, such as the U.S.-China tariff reduction agreement and easing geopolitical tensions, have contributed to the bearish sentiment in gold prices [3][7]. - Despite these agreements, concerns about economic growth and inflation persist, which may sustain gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [8][9]. Technical Analysis - The monthly chart indicates a significant weakening of bullish momentum, with gold prices expected to oscillate within a range of $2900 to $3400 over the next few years unless a new high is established [9][10]. - The weekly chart shows a bearish reversal pattern, suggesting that gold may remain in a weak adjustment phase until it can break above $3500 [10][12]. Market Outlook - The overall market sentiment suggests that gold will likely continue to experience fluctuations within a wide range, with potential for a downturn if it fails to reclaim the $3290 level [3][7][12]. - The long-term outlook indicates that as the interest rate cycle nears its end, gold's attractiveness may diminish, leading to a potential peak and subsequent correction [8][9].