供给充裕、需求弱势 生猪价格或继续偏弱整理

Core Viewpoint - The live pig market is experiencing a prolonged period of low prices due to an oversupply and weak terminal demand, with expectations of continued price declines into 2025 [1][5]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - As of May 9, the average price of live pigs in the mainstream market is 14.78 yuan/kg, down 1.54 yuan/kg from the beginning of the year, indicating a weak price trend [1]. - The slaughtering rate has decreased to 34.53%, down 1.05 percentage points from before the Labor Day holiday, reflecting a return to normal demand levels post-holiday [2]. - The daily slaughter volume tracked by 134 pig slaughtering enterprises is at its highest level since 2019, while frozen product inventory rates have increased to 18.93%, suggesting continued supply pressure [3]. Price Trends and Market Sentiment - The price of piglets has also declined, with the average price for 7 kg three-way cross piglets at 537.78 yuan/head, down 13.05 yuan/head from April's peak, indicating reduced market activity [4]. - The overall supply pressure in the live pig market is expected to limit the willingness to replenish stocks, leading to further declines in piglet prices [5]. Breeding Stock and Future Projections - The number of breeding sows has shown a slight decrease, with 40.39 million reported in March 2025, down 0.66% from previous months, which may lead to a decline in live pig output starting in late 2025 [6]. - The average slaughter weight of pigs has increased to 126.51 kg/head, up 4.28 kg/head from January's low, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics if secondary fattening operations increase [7]. Profitability and Market Outlook - Despite the decline in live pig prices, breeding profits remain positive, with profits for self-breeding at 226 yuan/head, down 152 yuan/head from the start of the year, suggesting that the industry has not yet faced significant losses [8]. - The expectation is for continued weak prices in the short to medium term, with potential for a turnaround in the third quarter if breeding capacity continues to decrease [8].