金晟富：5.13黄金短线企稳可以抄底吗？日内黄金交易分析

Market Overview - Recent fluctuations in gold prices have been influenced by easing tensions in US-China trade relations, leading to a significant sell-off in gold markets with a nearly 3% drop on May 12, marking the largest single-day decline of the year [1] - The price of spot gold fell to a low of $3207.73 per ounce before closing at $3234.79, leaving a notable long bearish candlestick on the daily chart [1] - The US dollar index surged by 1.5%, surpassing the 101 mark, reaching a two-month high of 101.97, which negatively impacted gold prices by making it more expensive for foreign buyers [1] Economic Indicators - The US dollar has strengthened for three consecutive weeks due to optimism surrounding a potential trade agreement, although it has still declined by 2.2% since the announcement of tariffs on April 2 [2] - Key economic data to be released this week includes the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and retail sales figures, which are expected to provide insights into the impact of trade conflicts on the economy and Federal Reserve's interest rate expectations [2] - Market sentiment has shifted, with traders adjusting their expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, now anticipating a potential cut of at least 25 basis points in September [2] Technical Analysis - The current gold price trend indicates a bearish adjustment following the significant drop, but the overall long-term outlook remains bullish [3] - Short-term resistance levels are identified at $3260 and $3290, while support is expected around the $3200 mark [3][5] - The market is currently in a phase of consolidation, with two potential scenarios: either a breakdown below $3200 or a rebound above this level leading to further upward movement [5] Trading Strategies - Suggested short positions include selling gold in the range of $3245-$3250 with a target of $3220-$3210, while long positions could be initiated around $3200-$3205 with a target of $3230-$3250 [6] - Emphasis is placed on risk management, including setting stop-loss orders and adjusting positions based on market movements [6][7]