中财期货：黄金长线具备走强动力

Group 1: Global Trade Developments - The recent trade negotiations indicate a short-term easing of global tariff risks, with the US and UK reaching a trade agreement that retains a 10% tariff on UK goods, which has limited actual impact due to the UK's small trade share with the US [2] - The US-China high-level economic talks held in Geneva resulted in significant progress, despite a decrease in China's exports to the US since 2018, with approximately $500 billion in goods still being exported annually [2][4] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Trends - The US deficit rate has risen significantly since the COVID-19 pandemic, with projections indicating it will exceed 7%, and the federal budget deficit is expected to reach $2.7 trillion by 2035 [4] - The long-term expectation of rising deficit rates in major economies is seen as a bullish factor for gold prices, as evidenced by the rapid increase in gold and Bitcoin prices amid US monetary expansion [4][7] Group 3: Gold Demand and Market Dynamics - Global gold demand remains strong, with the World Gold Council reporting the highest first-quarter demand since 2016, driven by central bank purchases and a significant increase in gold ETF inflows [5] - China's retail investment in gold reached its second-highest quarterly level, contributing to the overall strong demand for gold, while geopolitical uncertainties continue to influence central banks' purchasing strategies [5][6]