新茶饮的"鱿鱼游戏"：为什么所有品牌都在2025年抢着上市？

Core Viewpoint - The new tea beverage industry is experiencing a significant IPO boom in 2025, with multiple brands like Hu Shang A Yi, Mi Xue Bing Cheng, and Ba Wang Cha Ji successfully listing on stock exchanges, marking a shift from rapid expansion to efficiency-driven competition [4][6][15]. Group 1: IPO Trends - 2025 is referred to as the "Year of New Tea Beverage IPOs," with four major brands completing their listings in just four months [4]. - Hu Shang A Yi's stock opened 68% higher than its issue price, while Mi Xue Bing Cheng saw a subscription rate of 1145 times [1][4]. - The IPO wave is a response to slowing industry growth and tightening financing conditions, making public offerings a strategic necessity for these companies [6][12]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The growth rate of China's new tea beverage market is projected to decline from 18.8% in 2023 to around 12% in 2024, with the total number of stores reaching 464,000 and over 20,000 closures [6]. - The industry is shifting from expansion through new store openings to competition based on existing market share, leading to a focus on operational efficiency [6][20]. - The financing environment has become challenging, with only 18 investment events in 2024, prompting companies to seek IPOs as a vital funding source [6][10]. Group 3: Company Performance - Hu Shang A Yi reported a revenue of 3.348 billion yuan in 2023, with a growth rate of 52.3%, but faced a decline to 3.285 billion yuan in 2024, marking a 1.9% decrease [16]. - Ba Wang Cha Ji achieved a GMV of 30 billion yuan in 2024, with rapid store expansion, indicating ongoing growth despite market challenges [17]. - Mi Xue Bing Cheng's revenue for 2024 was 24.829 billion yuan, a 22.3% increase, but its income heavily relies on franchisee purchases rather than direct consumer sales [18][25]. Group 4: Competitive Challenges - The industry faces severe homogenization and a slowdown in innovation, with new product introduction rates decreasing from an average of 6.2 days per item in 2023 to 7.2 days in 2024 [22]. - The reliance on franchise models has led to disparities in profitability among stores, with some locations struggling to generate sufficient revenue [20][25]. - Increased competition has resulted in franchisee dissatisfaction, with many facing challenges in profitability and market saturation [25]. Group 5: Future Directions - Companies are encouraged to focus on deepening market penetration and enhancing operational efficiency, particularly in lower-tier cities [27]. - Supply chain management is identified as a critical competitive advantage, with companies like Mi Xue Bing Cheng and Ba Wang Cha Ji optimizing their supply chains to reduce costs [29]. - The future of the new tea beverage industry will depend on balancing efficiency with brand loyalty and consumer engagement, moving beyond mere price competition [31].