美联储暂停降息，港股会怎么变？这些流动性指标告诉你答案

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the third consecutive time this year that rates have remained unchanged [1] - The performance of the Hong Kong stock market is closely linked to global liquidity, particularly U.S. dollar liquidity, influenced by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, dollar exchange rates, and U.S. Treasury yields [1][2] Group 2 - Changes in U.S. Treasury yields significantly impact cross-border capital flows and the valuation of Hong Kong stocks, with rising yields leading to reduced investment in Hong Kong assets [3] - The monetary policy cycle of the Federal Reserve affects the Hong Kong stock market differently, with initial rate cuts improving liquidity and benefiting the market, while rate hikes can complicate market dynamics [5][4] Group 3 - The U.S. dollar index influences international capital allocation preferences, with a stronger dollar increasing the cost of holding non-dollar assets, thereby pressuring Hong Kong stocks [8][9] - Fluctuations in the exchange rate, particularly the USD/CNY rate, affect the earnings of Chinese companies listed in Hong Kong, indirectly impacting stock valuations [9][10] Group 4 - The Hong Kong-Macau interest rate differential directly affects local liquidity, with the Hong Kong Monetary Authority managing the exchange rate through an automatic interest rate adjustment mechanism [14][15] - Changes in the Libor-Hibor spread influence local liquidity conditions, with widening spreads leading to increased financing costs and pressure on high-valuation growth stocks [15][16] Group 5 - The overall impact of overseas liquidity on Hong Kong stocks can be summarized as follows: U.S. Treasury yields, U.S.-China interest rate differentials, and Hong Kong-Macau interest rate differentials drive style shifts through valuation and capital flow effects, while the dollar index and exchange rate fluctuations influence market preferences [19]