中美贸易协议影响几何？华尔街最聪明的投资者这样说！

Core Viewpoint - The recent US-China trade agreement has provided a boost to the market, but progress on tariff issues has not completely alleviated the risks facing the US economy and stock market [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - Investors have finally relaxed after weeks of tension, but Wall Street leaders have mixed reactions, remaining cautious about potential market risks despite a more optimistic outlook for the US economy [1] - Mike Wilson, Chief Investment Officer at Morgan Stanley, believes the historic sell-off triggered by Trump has ended and maintains a year-end target of 6,500 for the S&P 500, indicating a 12% increase from current levels [2] - Wilson emphasizes that reduced tariff pressures create room for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, which would benefit risk assets like stocks [2] Group 2: Economic Outlook - Torsten Slok, Chief Economist at Apollo, points out that the agreement has removed significant tail risks in the economy, restoring confidence among consumers, businesses, and international capital, potentially creating new growth momentum [2] - Slok notes that traders have reduced expectations for interest rate cuts from 3-4 times to 2 times this year, suggesting that improved growth prospects may offset inflation pressures [3] Group 3: Cautionary Perspectives - Roger Altman, founder of Evercore, advises the market to remain calm, stating that the agreement is encouraging but represents only a temporary achievement [3] - Altman highlights that the "90-day high tariff suspension" is merely a pause to negotiate a permanent framework, and there are still challenging issues to resolve between the US and China [3] - He warns that even with the tariff suspension, the overall tariff rate in the US will rise from 3-4% during the Biden administration to approximately 14%, which could lead to higher prices, suppressed consumption, and increased inflation [3]