日内瓦谈判引爆商品市场：中美关税破冰下的期货品种掘金指南

Group 1 - The Geneva trade talks between China and the US have led to a significant reduction in punitive tariffs, with both sides agreeing to lower tariffs by over 100% [2] - The upcoming US April CPI data release is expected to influence market dynamics, particularly in the context of easing inflation expectations [2][9] Group 2 - Agricultural products such as soybeans and corn are expected to see increased exports to China due to reduced tariffs, which previously imposed a 125% tariff on US soybeans, negatively impacting domestic crushing margins [3] - Livestock products may face short-term pressure due to increased domestic feed supply, affecting futures for live pigs and eggs [4] - Cotton prices may find strong support in the short term due to improved export expectations and a decrease in inventory [5] Group 3 - In the energy sector, the easing of tariff concerns is anticipated to lead to a recovery in demand for crude oil and natural gas, positively impacting domestic energy products [6] - Lithium carbonate may experience reduced negative sentiment as US tariffs on electric vehicle imports are expected to decrease, potentially benefiting North American lithium battery material manufacturers [6] - Industrial silicon prices may improve as expectations of tariffs on the photovoltaic industry ease, leading to a potential demand recovery [6] Group 4 - The chemical sector is likely to see a chain reaction from eased export restrictions, with polyester and related products such as PTA and short fibers expected to rebound due to improved inventory balance [7] Group 5 - Gold prices may decline further as trade negotiations between China and the US and global geopolitical tensions show signs of easing, with a high level of speculative long positions in gold potentially leading to technical sell-offs [8]