KVB plus：美国4月CPI数据今晚公布！市场恐迎“滞胀屠杀”？

Group 1 - The April CPI data release is expected to ignite a fierce debate about inflation trends, intertwining with Trump's trade policies and Federal Reserve monetary decisions [1] - Housing costs are a critical variable in determining whether the inflation decline trend continues, with housing inflation rate dropping to 4% in Q1 2025, resonating with slowing private market home price growth [3] - The impact of tariffs is beginning to permeate the market, with a 2% increase in tariff revenue indicating accumulating cost pressures for businesses [3] Group 2 - The current CPI data may underestimate long-term inflation risks due to the lag in price increases of industrial intermediate goods, which typically take 6-12 months to pass through the supply chain [4] - Consumer behavior is being distorted by tariff uncertainties, leading to the largest price increase in non-transport core goods in two years, reflecting irrational purchasing behavior [4] - The recent breakthrough in US-China Geneva talks, which includes a 91% reduction in bilateral tariffs, is expected to reshape inflation expectations and reduce import costs [4] Group 3 - The bond market is betting on a pause in June and a rate cut in July, indicating a collective vote for a "soft landing" narrative, while there is a stark contrast in long-term inflation expectations [5] - The current economic landscape presents a dual paradox where trade resolutions provide short-term inflation relief, but global supply chain restructuring is brewing new cost pressures [5] - The April CPI report serves as a litmus test for existing economic theories and a microscope for observing the restructuring of the global trade system [6]