闫瑞祥：黄金 3200 生死线，欧美后续关注周线支撑

Macro Perspective - On May 12, global financial markets experienced significant turbulence, with gold prices plummeting to a low of $3207.63 per ounce, marking a 3.5% drop in COMEX gold futures, the worst single-day performance in 2025 [1] - The sell-off was triggered by a 90-day "truce agreement" between China and the U.S., leading to a substantial reduction in tariffs and a sharp decline in market risk aversion, resulting in a shift of funds towards risk assets and a notable rise in U.S. stock indices [1] - Despite the positive market reaction, uncertainties remain, particularly regarding the upcoming CPI data, which could impact gold's inflation-hedging properties if it exceeds expectations [1] - Geopolitical risks, including nuclear deterrence between India and Pakistan and ongoing Russia-Ukraine negotiations, could reignite risk aversion in the market [1] Dollar Index - The dollar index showed an upward trend on Monday, reaching a high of 101.955 and closing at 101.777 after fluctuating throughout the day [2] - The analysis indicates that the dollar index is likely to face resistance around the 102.90 area in the medium term, while key support is identified at the 100 level [2] - Short-term traders are advised to monitor the 101.30 support level, with potential upward movement expected if this level holds [2] Gold Market - Gold prices experienced a significant decline on Monday, with a high of $3292.03 and a low of $3207.63, ultimately closing at $3234.64 [4] - The market opened with a gap down and continued to show weakness, although caution is advised against short positions until the price breaks below the recent low of $3200 [5] - The monthly trend indicates a correction after four months of gains, with support at the $3100 level, suggesting a potential for a medium-term bullish outlook [5] Euro/USD - The Euro/USD pair saw a downward trend on Monday, with prices ranging from a low of 1.1242 to a high of 1.1064, closing at 1.1085 [7] - Long-term bullish sentiment is supported by a monthly support level at 1.0800, while short-term traders should focus on resistance around 1.1180-1.1190 [7] - The market is currently under pressure, and a break above 1.1290 is necessary for a bullish reversal; otherwise, a bearish outlook is maintained [7]