KVB PRIME:中美贸易协议影响几何?华尔街最聪明的投资者这样说!

Group 1 - The signing of the US-China trade agreement has provided a temporary boost to global markets, but underlying economic risks remain [1] - Morgan Stanley's Chief Investment Officer Wilson predicts a year-end target of 6500 points for the S&P 500, indicating a 12% upside potential, as the retreat of tariff threats allows the Federal Reserve to shift its policy focus [3] - Apollo's Chief Economist Slok observes that traders are adjusting their interest rate cut expectations from 3-4 cuts to 2, signaling a shift in market sentiment as recession fears diminish [3] Group 2 - Evercore's founder Altman warns that the current agreement is merely a "90-day high tariff suspension" and highlights that the overall tariff rate remains significantly elevated, which could lead to inflationary pressures [4] - The market is experiencing a cognitive restructuring, balancing short-term risk appetite with long-term structural challenges, as the trade agreement may temporarily boost corporate earnings but does not eliminate the risk of renewed trade tensions [4] - The agreement alters the risk pricing logic for investors, necessitating a more sophisticated warning mechanism for asset portfolios as policy uncertainty transitions from acute risks to chronic variables [4]