华夏基金周策略：进入混沌期，保持宏观审慎与产业趋势的平衡

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced significant gains from May 7 to May 9, driven by a recovery in external markets and a shift in narrative from recession to "AI supply shortage" due to Microsoft's cloud business exceeding expectations [1] - The overall trading volume in the A-share market did not show significant expansion, indicating a short-term focus on speculative trading with a decline in risk appetite [1] - The top-performing indices included the Wind Microplate Index with a weekly increase of 5.46%, while the Sci-Tech Innovation 100 Index saw a decline of 0.83% [1] Group 2 - Current assessments of the macroeconomic environment are becoming ambiguous, with global trade activities potentially cooling due to high tariffs [2] - Analysts suggest distinguishing between beta and alpha risks related to global tariffs, with beta risk stemming from U.S. tariff impacts on global demand and alpha risk arising from higher tariffs on China compared to other regions [2] - The A-share market indices have largely filled previous gaps, but are expected to face fundamental challenges in the future [2] Group 3 - The macro-prudential approach and trends in the AI technology industry are not aligned, necessitating strategies for total control of equity positions and structural optimization [3] Group 4 - Bonds and gold remain effective tools for reducing volatility, while U.S. stocks are in a wait-and-see phase amid recession pressures and policy challenges [4] - The focus on equity allocation is becoming more cautious, with dividend and AI sectors being prioritized due to their strong cash flow and low correlation with external demand [4] Group 5 - Relevant ETFs for the AI industry include the Hang Seng Technology Index ETF (513180) and the Artificial Intelligence AI ETF (515070) [5] - ETFs aimed at reducing volatility include the Gold ETF Huaxia (518850) and the Hong Kong Central Enterprise Dividend ETF (513910) [6]