全球关税博弈升级：Startrader政策如何重塑贸易格局中国应对之道

Core Viewpoint - The global trade system is undergoing profound changes, driven by the U.S. tariff policy under President Trump, which has expanded from traditional manufacturing to the entertainment industry, reshaping global supply chains and demonstrating China's commitment to maintaining a multilateral trade system through precise countermeasures and industrial upgrades [1][3]. Group 1: Tariff Policy and Geopolitical Strategy - Trump's tariff policy has evolved from an economic tool to a geopolitical weapon, with a notable 34% tariff on Chinese goods announced on April 2, 2025 [3][5]. - The policy exhibits three main characteristics: comprehensive coverage across industries, a strategy to divide allies, and a disruption of existing trade rules under the WTO framework [3]. Group 2: Impact on Global Supply Chains - The tariff measures are causing a domino effect across global supply chains, affecting various sectors from traditional industries like steel and automobiles to cultural sectors such as film [3]. - The U.S. is threatening to impose a 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico while keeping a 90-day negotiation window, aiming to disrupt the North American supply chain alliance [3]. - The tariffs are expected to significantly increase costs for businesses, exemplified by a Chicago retailer facing a potential cost increase from $80,000 to $200,000 for imported goods due to tariff fluctuations [3][5]. - Inflationary pressures are anticipated, with predictions that U.S. inflation could exceed 4.5% if the tariffs are fully implemented, potentially delaying the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [3]. Group 3: China's Response - China is implementing a three-dimensional response system of defense, countermeasures, and upgrades to address the challenges posed by U.S. tariffs [4][5]. - Legal countermeasures include imposing a 34% tariff on U.S. goods and placing 16 U.S. entities on an export control list, maintaining adherence to multilateral trade rules [5]. - China is enhancing supply chain resilience by relocating key resources to Southeast Asia, aiming to reduce its trade dependency on the U.S. to below 10% by 2024 [5]. - The country is also accelerating the establishment of new trade rules through RCEP, focusing on digital trade and green standards [5]. Group 4: Future Trade Landscape - The tariff policies are likened to a stone thrown into the global trade system, creating significant ripples, with no clear winners emerging from the trade conflict [4]. - As the U.S. attempts to reshape trade under an "America First" agenda, China is promoting a more equitable and sustainable global trade system [4]. - The global trade landscape is shifting from a "tariff-determined era" to a "rules-based era," with China proposing new digital trade rules that have garnered responses from 43 countries [5].