最后一批货轮将抵达，美国人提前进入悲观状态，打法或有大调整？

Group 1 - The trade war initiated by Trump has primarily affected the relationship with China, leading to a backlash in the U.S. consumer market, where consumers will ultimately bear the cost of tariffs [1] - The last batch of goods not subjected to high tariffs is arriving at U.S. ports, with a significant reduction in imports expected next week; the American Retail Federation predicts a 20% year-on-year decline in imports by the second half of 2025, while JPMorgan forecasts a drop in imports from China to 75-80% [3] - The ongoing trade tensions have evolved into a prolonged dispute rather than negotiations, with potential risks to the stock, bond, and currency markets as the U.S. faces challenges in managing its debt obligations [4] Group 2 - Retailers in the U.S. are under pressure, with only 6-8 weeks of inventory left, necessitating quick decisions from Trump to alleviate panic; the shortage of essential goods could lead to rising prices and a decrease in job opportunities, increasing the risk of economic recession [7] - Trump acknowledges the difficulty of completely severing supply chains with China, but he aims to weaken China's position in the new order; however, he may have overestimated the resilience of the U.S. economy [9] - The situation is a race against time, with the need to rally other countries against U.S. economic coercion; the strategy may involve allowing certain countries' products to enter the U.S. market at reduced tariffs to mitigate supply chain shortages [10][12]