Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Jin Tou Wang·2025-05-13 05:59Core Viewpoint - Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) futures are experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract reported at 4267.00 yuan/ton, reflecting a decline of 2.18% [1] Market Overview - Hungary's Prime Minister Orban has rejected the EU's plan to halt imports of Russian oil and gas [2] - As of May 12, the Dalian Commodity Exchange reported 6762 LPG futures warehouse receipts, an increase of 415 from the previous trading day [2] - The average domestic price of liquefied gas was 4918 yuan/ton, down by 16 yuan/ton [2] - Anticipation of increased market supply is expected as major refineries, including Jiujiang Petrochemical, Shanghai Gaoqiao, and Beihai Refining, are set to complete maintenance [2] Institutional Insights - Hualian Futures noted that the recent decrease in LPG domestic production is below levels seen in the past two years, while port inventory levels have rebounded to high levels [3] - The PDH weekly capacity utilization rate has dropped to a one-year low, indicating weak profitability [3] - The reduction in import tariffs is expected to stimulate domestic stockpiling, with potential increases in supply from third-party imports to fill gaps in the U.S. market [3] - The demand outlook remains uncertain due to fluctuating trade negotiations, but the sharp change in tariff levels is likely to trigger significant overseas stockpiling demand, benefiting polypropylene, a major downstream product of LPG [3] Technical Analysis - The market is currently seeing a downward trend in LPG prices, with the main contract support at around 4290 and resistance at approximately 4500 [4] - Increased external supply from refineries and competitive shipping at ports are contributing to a downward shift in market price levels [4]