关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 瑞达期货研究院 「2026.02.06」 天然橡胶市场周报 研究员：林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询证书号Z0021558 「周度要点小结」 3 行情回顾：本周天然橡胶市场多空拉锯加大，胶价呈现宽幅震荡。进口胶市场贸易商轮仓换月为 主，少量套利加仓，工厂采购情绪一般。国产现货报价随盘面震荡调整，下游采购意愿相对平淡， 多以适量刚需补货为主，市场整体交投气氛一般，实际成交表现清淡。 行情展望：当前国内天然橡胶主产区处于停割期，海外由割胶旺产向减产期过渡，总供应呈现缩 量。近期青岛港口总库存呈现累库，保税及一般贸易库均累库。海外船货有节前集中到港入库预 期，总入库量有所提高，前期天胶价格不断拉涨，下游企业采购积极性偏弱，出库量环比明显下 滑，带动青岛港口库存延续累库状态。需求方面，本周国内轮胎企业产能利用率下滑，个别样本 企业在1月底进入停工放假状态，对整体产能利用率形成一定拖拽。据了解，多家全钢胎企业将在 2月10日（腊月廿三）前后逐步进入春节放假状态，半钢胎企 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「 2026.02.06」 尿素市场周报 研究员：林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询证书号Z0021558 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业链分析 「 周度要点小结」 策略建议： UR2605合约短线预计在1750-1800区间波动。 3 行情回顾：本周国内尿素市场窄幅波动，截止本周四山东中小颗粒主流出厂涨至1750-1800元/吨， 均价环比上涨15元/吨。本周期尿素工厂继续春节前的订单预收，期货价格的上涨，市场情绪的带 动，让尿素工厂报价并未出现明显松动，收单依然顺利。 行情展望：前期部分检修装置恢复，带动国内尿素产量增加，下周暂无企业装置计划停车，4-5家 停车企业装置可能恢复生产，考虑到短时的企业故障发生，预计产量增幅扩大。近期农业需求持 续推进，节前终端及贸易企业适当增加储备需求，尿素工厂订单量明显增加。工业领域维持刚需 采购，复合肥本周产能利用率环比提升，部分地区虽环保压力仍存，但为保障供应，规模企业装 置开工率稳中有升，春节临近，预计复合肥产能利用率或将下降。本周国内尿素企业库存小幅下 ...

价格高企，库存更高。 经济观察报记者 王雅洁 春节临近，铁矿石市场陷入一场罕见的"反向博弈"。 一边，是居高不下的价格：国际主流基准——62%澳粉价格在2026年2月5日守在102.70美元/吨的近月高 位，未出现明显单边下跌。 另一边，是创纪录的库存。 截至2026年2月5日，全国45个主要港口铁矿石库存达17022.26万吨，47港库存达17758.26万吨，均突破 1.7亿吨关口，攀至近两年新高，且近一周内45港库存环比激增255.73万吨、47港环比激增261.73万吨。 这组数据勾勒出今年春节前市场的反常图景：在历史性高库存的重压下，贸易商手握堆积的货物，却大 多不愿抛售；钢厂必须补库，却坚持集体"抠门"。 "都知道库存高，谁也不想在高位接货。但生产不能停，这个平衡点太难找了。"河北唐山一家钢厂的采 购负责人张向洋道出了行业的普遍焦虑。 一场围绕价格、库存与心理防线的"极限拉扯"已然开场。这不再是简单的节日备货行情，而是一场深度 博弈，其结果将直接影响节后整个黑色产业链的利润与节奏。 高库存 港口，是铁矿石流通的第一现场。 山东日照港的一名业务部经理对记者表示，现在（堆存铁矿石的）场地压力很大，尽管 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Canola Oil**: Global and Canadian canola supply - demand is relatively loose, constraining prices. However, improved China - Canada trade relations and US biofuel policies support the market. Domestically, canola oil is in a de - stocking mode, but supply pressure may increase. The price is affected by canola purchase news, with increased market volatility, and short - term trading is recommended [8]. - **Canola Meal**: High expectations of a South American soybean harvest and early Brazilian soybean harvest pressure international soybean prices. But US - China trade talks and strong US soybean crushing support the market. Domestically, supply pressure may increase, and the canola meal trend is weaker than soybean meal, remaining in a weak trend [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Highlights Summary - **Canola Oil**: This week, the canola oil futures fluctuated and closed lower. The 05 contract closed at 9,144 yuan/ton, down 236 yuan/ton from the previous week. Future prices are affected by global and domestic supply - demand factors [8]. - **Canola Meal**: This week, the canola meal futures fluctuated and closed lower. The 05 contract closed at 2,239 yuan/ton, down 48 yuan/ton from the previous week. The trend is influenced by international soybean market and domestic supply expectations [10]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market Price Movement**: Canola oil futures fluctuated and closed lower, with a total open interest of 280,449 lots, down 23,482 lots from last week. Canola meal futures also fluctuated and closed lower, with a total open interest of 932,849 lots, up 18,486 lots from last week [16]. - **Top Twenty Net Positions**: This week, the top twenty net positions of canola oil futures changed from net long to net short (- 14,217), and the net short positions of canola meal futures increased to - 259,365 [22]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of canola oil were 625 lots, and those of canola meal were 0 lots [28][29]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: The spot price of canola oil in Jiangsu was 9,920 yuan/ton, down from last week, with a basis of + 776 yuan/ton. The spot price of canola meal in Nantong, Jiangsu was 2,500 yuan/ton, slightly down, with a basis of + 261 yuan/ton [35][41]. - **Futures Inter - month Spread**: The 5 - 9 spread of canola oil was + 54 yuan/ton, and that of canola meal was - 47 yuan/ton, both at medium levels in recent years [47]. - **Futures - Spot Ratio**: The 05 contract ratio of canola oil to canola meal was 4.084, and the average spot price ratio was 3.92 [50]. - **Canola - Soybean Oil and Canola - Palm Oil Spread**: The 05 contract spread of canola - soybean oil was 1,090 yuan/ton, and that of canola - palm oil was 118 yuan/ton, with little change this week [60]. - **Soybean - Canola Meal Spread**: The 05 contract spread of soybean - canola meal was 496 yuan/ton, and the spot spread was 580 yuan/ton as of Thursday [66]. 3.3. Industry Chain Situation 3.3.1. Rapeseed - **Supply - Side: Weekly Inventory and Import Arrival Forecast**: As of the end of the 5th week of 2026, the domestic imported rapeseed inventory was 218,000 tons, up 98,000 tons from last week. The estimated arrival volumes in February, March, and April 2026 were 120,000 tons, 170,000 tons, and 230,000 tons respectively [70]. - **Supply - Side: Import Pressing Profit Change**: As of February 5, the spot pressing profit of imported rapeseed was + 851 yuan/ton [74]. - **Supply - Side: Oil Mill Pressing Volume**: As of the 5th week of 2026, the rapeseed pressing volume of major coastal oil mills was 350 tons, up from 0 tons last week, with an operating rate of 0.82% [78]. - **Supply - Side: Monthly Import Arrival Volume**: In December 2025, the rapeseed import volume was 55,600 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 90.79% and a month - on - month increase of 53,600 tons [82]. 3.3.2. Canola Oil - **Supply - Side: Inventory and Import Volume Change**: As of the end of the 5th week of 2026, the domestic imported and pressed canola oil inventory was 263,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.82%. In December 2025, the canola oil import volume was 219,500 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.89% and a month - on - month increase of 54,000 tons [86]. - **Demand - Side: Edible Vegetable Oil Consumption and Production**: As of December 31, 2025, the monthly output of edible vegetable oil was 525,4000 tons, and the monthly catering revenue was 573.8 billion yuan [90]. - **Demand - Side: Weekly Contract Volume Change**: As of the end of the 5th week of 2026, the domestic imported and pressed canola oil contract volume was 66,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.08% [94]. 3.3.3. Canola Meal - **Supply - Side: Weekly Inventory Change**: As of the end of the 5th week of 2026, the domestic imported and pressed canola meal inventory was 1,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 100% [98]. - **Supply - Side: Import Volume Change**: In December 2025, the canola meal import volume was 238,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 22.58% and a month - on - month increase of 23,500 tons [102]. - **Demand - Side: Monthly Feed Output Comparison**: As of December 31, 2025, the monthly output of feed was 3,008,600 tons [106]. 3.4. Options Market Analysis As of February 6, this week, the canola meal futures price fluctuated and closed lower, and the corresponding option implied volatility was 20.63%, down 1.67% from last week, at a relatively high level compared to the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility of the underlying [109].

瑞达期货研究院 「2026.2.6」 集运指数（欧线）期货周报 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 作者：廖宏斌 期货投资咨询证号： Z0020723 联系电话：0595-86778969 1、行情回顾 2、消息回顾与分析 3、图表分析 4、行情展望与策略 周度要点总结 本周集运指数（欧线）期货价格小幅波动，主力合约EC2604收涨0.75%，远月合约收得-2-1%不等，周内受商品交 易情绪影响，振幅较大。最新SCFIS欧线结算运价指数为1792.14，较上周下降67.17点，环比下行3.6%。自2026年4月 1日起，所有纳入清单的光伏相关产品将不再享受增值税出口退税优惠。光伏产品迎来全额退税取消，料导致抢运发 生，从而提振长协货量，但由于距离4月仍有一定时间，在交易情绪平稳后，消息所带来的涨幅回吐。12月份我国外 贸水平超预期回升，进出口均改善明显，或与部分商品增值税出口退税取消政策以及节前到来所导致的抢出口有关。 出口是我国经济的核心动能，随着我国出口竞争力持续强化，预计2026年仍将保持较高增速。现货运价方面，马士基 开舱第7-9周运价报价大柜1900/高柜2000美金，环比第 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2026.02.06」 红枣市场周报 研究员：王翠冰 期货从业资格号F03139616 期货投资咨询从业证Z0021556 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 目录 本周红枣期货价格走势 图1、郑枣主力合约价格走势 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场及期股关联 「 周度要点小结」 3 行情回顾：本周郑枣主力合约价格下跌，周度跌幅约2.85%。 行情展望：年前整体走货节奏尚可，临近年关备货收尾阶段。据 Mysteel 农产品 调研数据统计，截至2026年2月5日红枣本周36家样本点物理库存在11888吨， 较上周减少1255吨，环比减少9.55%，同比增加12.84%，样本点库存环比下降。 从多数样本客户的反馈及市场实际情况来看，年前整体走货情况与去年同期相 比差异不大。受春节假期影响，目前远途物流已基本停运，但省内物流仍可正 常发运。由于25产季的收购结构较为分散，且行业对年后新季行情普遍持谨慎 预期。长假临近，注意风险控制。 未来交易提示： 1、现货价格2、消费端 「 期现市场情况」 来源：郑商所 瑞达期货研究院 本周郑枣2605合约价格下跌 ...

后市来看，中原期货表示，供需格局主导现货价格，处于贴水状态的期货盘面近弱远强，03节后待性明 显，远月跟随调整。 现货方面，据光大期货介绍，昨日中国生猪日度均价11.96元/公斤，环比跌0.04元/公斤，基准交割地河 南市场生猪均价12.66元/公斤，环比涨0.36元/公斤，四川、广东跌，山东涨，辽宁平。 基本面上，瑞达期货（002961）指出，由于2月份出栏时间较少，规模场降重出栏，中小散户出栏积极 性提升，节前养殖端加快出栏节奏，供应压力增加，关注养殖端出栏情况。 需求方面，国新国证期货分析称，消费需求进入季节性旺季，居民备货过年现象增多，对猪价形成阶段 性支撑。 2月6日，国内期市农副产品板块全线飘绿。其中，生猪期货主力合约报收于11625.00元/吨，小幅下跌 0.68%。 ...

1、央行公告称，2月5日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了1185亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作 利率1.40%，投标量1185亿元，中标量1185亿元。同时，以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位 中标方式开展了3000亿元14天期逆回购操作。Wind数据显示，当日3540亿元逆回购到期， 据此计算，单日净投放645亿元。 2、财政部、海关总署、税务总局联合印发《关于海南自由贸易港岛内居民消费的进境商品" 零关税"政策的通知》，自公布之日起实施。政策规定，对海南自由贸易港岛内居民在指定经 营场所购买的进境商品，在免税额度和商品清单范围内免征进口关税、进口环节以及国内环节 增值税和消费税。其中，岛内居民包括持有海南省身份证、海南省居住证或海南省社保卡的中 国公民，在海南省工作生活并持有居留证件的境外人员。免税额度为每人每年1万元人民币， 不限购买次数。 3、中国人民银行召开2026年信贷市场工作会议。会议要求，大力发展科技金融、绿色金融、 普惠金融、养老金融、数字金融，强化消费领域金融支持。建设多层次金融服务体系，着力支 持扩大内需、科技创新、中小微企业等重点领域。继续做好金融支持融资平台债务风险化解工 作，支持地方政府持续 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - It is expected that Shanghai nickel will fluctuate and adjust in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the 130,000 - 140,000 yuan/ton range [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel was 134,430 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3,250 yuan; the price difference between the 03 - 04 contracts of Shanghai nickel was - 300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan; LME 3 - month nickel was 17,330 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 65 US dollars; the position volume of the main contract of Shanghai nickel was 93,478 lots, a decrease of 5,975 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel was - 42,420 lots, an increase of 2,105 lots; LME nickel inventory was 286,314 tons, an increase of 786 tons; the inventory of nickel in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 55,396 tons, an increase of 4,602 tons; the LME nickel cancelled warrants totaled 11,148 tons, unchanged; the warrant quantity of Shanghai nickel was 50,464 tons, an increase of 2,392 tons [3] 2. Spot Market - The SMM 1 nickel spot price was 139,850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,750 yuan; the spot average price of 1 nickel plate in the Yangtze River was 139,850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,950 yuan; the CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel was 210 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the bonded warehouse (warrant) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel was 210 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate was 33,750 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the NI main contract was 5,420 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,500 yuan; the LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium was - 222 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 5.08 US dollars [3] 3. Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore was 199.28 million tons, a decrease of 134.67 million tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore was 1,172.34 million tons, a decrease of 56.28 million tons; the average monthly import unit price of nickel ore was 75.53 US dollars/ton, an increase of 3.36 US dollars; the tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni was 41.71 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged [3] 4. Industry Situation - The monthly output of electrolytic nickel was 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly output of ferronickel was 21,400 metal tons, a decrease of 700 metal tons [3] 5. Downstream Situation - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys was 23,861.23 tons, an increase of 11,020.74 tons; the monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel was 174.72 million tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel was 99.61 million tons, an increase of 10.07 million tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel was 54.9 million tons, an increase of 0.97 million tons [3] 6. Industry News - The People's Bank of China focuses on supporting key areas such as expanding domestic demand, technological innovation, and small and medium - sized enterprises; the US ADP employment data in January was significantly lower than expected, with only 22,000 new jobs added, highlighting the weakening momentum of the labor market at the beginning of the year; the US ISM services PMI index in January was 53.8, remaining at the highest level since October 2024, better than expected [3] 7. Viewpoint Summary - In the macro - aspect, the People's Bank of China focuses on supporting key areas. In the fundamental aspect, the Philippines has entered the rainy season, and the import volume of nickel ore is in a downward trend; Indonesia plans to significantly cut the RKAB quota to 250 - 260 million tons next year, but the quota for the first quarter will be postponed, and the raw material contraction is expected to be transmitted in the second quarter. In the smelting end, the production of Indonesian ferronickel remains high, and the quantity flowing back to China is expected to increase; domestic refined nickel production capacity is large, and with the recent rise in nickel prices, there is a profit space for production, and the output of refined nickel is expected to rise again. In the demand end, the profit of stainless steel plants has improved, and the production volume is expected to be high; the production and sales of new energy vehicles continue to climb, and ternary batteries contribute a small incremental demand. Domestic nickel inventory is growing faster, the market mainly buys on dips, and the spot premium has declined; overseas LME inventory continues to increase, and the spot premium has been lowered. Technically, the position is stable and the price is adjusted, and the market sentiment is recovering [3] 8. Key Concerns - There is no news today [3]

沪锡产业日报 2026-02-05 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪锡(日,元/吨) | 365140 | -26940 3月-4月合约收盘价:沪锡(日,元/吨) | -230 | 220 | | | LME3个月锡(日,美元/吨) | 48360 | -1935 主力合约持仓量:沪锡(日,手) | 33927 | -1987 | | | 期货前20名净持仓:沪锡(日,手) | -6898 | 1053 LME锡:总库存(日,吨) | 7110 | 15 | | | 上期所库存:锡(周,吨) | 10468 | 748 LME锡:注销仓单(日,吨) | 360 | -5 | | 现货市场 | 上期所仓单:锡(日,吨) | 7012 | -399 | | | | | SMM1#锡现货价格(日,元/吨) | 378100 | -16950 长江有色市场1#锡现货价(日,元/吨) | 376150 | -19760 | | | 沪锡主力合约基差(日,元 ...