原油“供应过剩”不可避免? 今年以来原油需求萎靡 库存仍处累积态势

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the reports indicates a weaker-than-expected global oil demand growth and a continuous accumulation of inventories, leading to expectations of a supply surplus in 2025 and 2026 [1][7] - As of May 6, 2025, the average global oil demand was 103.5 million barrels per day, showing a year-on-year increase of only 280,000 barrels per day, which is nearly half of the expected growth of 550,000 barrels per day [1] - The first week of May saw a decrease of 4 million barrels in visible OECD commercial crude and refined oil inventories, although gasoline and diesel inventories fell by 6 million barrels, offset by a 2 million barrel increase in crude oil inventories [1][2] Group 2 - In the first week of May, total liquid inventories globally increased by 8 million barrels, with seven out of the past eight weeks showing increases [2] - The increase in crude oil inventories was primarily driven by a significant rise of 26 million barrels in China's crude oil stocks [2] - The overall liquid inventory has increased by 62 million barrels year-to-date until the end of April, with crude oil inventories rising by 102 million barrels and refined oil inventories decreasing by 39 million barrels [4] Group 3 - Goldman Sachs has lowered its price forecasts for Brent crude to an average of $60 per barrel for the remainder of 2025 and $56 per barrel for 2026, reflecting a significant downward adjustment from previous expectations [5][7] - The expectation of a supply surplus in the oil market is shared among major financial institutions, with Goldman Sachs predicting a surplus of 800,000 barrels per day in 2025 and 1.4 million barrels per day in 2026 [7] - The recent trade negotiations between the U.S. and China have led to a temporary suspension of tariffs, which may improve market sentiment, but concerns about supply surplus continue to exert downward pressure on oil prices [8]