高盛将美国发生经济衰退的可能性下调至35%

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs reports a decrease in the likelihood of a U.S. economic recession over the next 12 months from 45% to 35% due to easing trade tensions [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook - The recent trade agreements are expected to result in a lower-than-anticipated increase in actual tariff rates [1] - Goldman Sachs has raised its forecast for U.S. economic growth in 2025 by 0.5 percentage points to 1.0% [1] - The expectation for the Federal Reserve to begin interest rate cuts has been postponed from July to December [1] Group 2: Trade Agreements - The Trump administration may announce additional preliminary trade agreements in the coming weeks, which could further reduce actual tariff rates [1]