中美贸易谈判后，美联储官员表态：降息更难！特朗普又要愤怒了？

Core Viewpoint - The recent preliminary trade agreement between the U.S. and China may reduce the aggressive tariffs imposed on each other, but high tariffs will still impact the economy and make it more difficult for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates [3][5]. Group 1: Trade Agreement Impact - The U.S. and China have reached a preliminary trade agreement that includes a significant reduction in tariffs, which may alleviate some of the trade war's negative effects [3]. - The current tariff rate on Chinese products is set at 30%, which remains high and is expected to lead to price increases and economic slowdown [3]. - The trade conflict could have long-term repercussions for the U.S., including damage to its reputation and potential shifts in supply chains as investors seek reliable partners elsewhere [5]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Position - Federal Reserve official Adriana Kugler indicated that the likelihood of interest rate cuts has decreased due to the trade agreement, as the need for aggressive monetary policy tools may have changed [3]. - The economic data has been distorted by pre-tariff stockpiling, leading to a negative GDP growth in the first quarter, which is primarily attributed to a surge in imports [5]. - Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee echoed Kugler's sentiments, noting that while the agreement may reduce the immediate impact of tariffs, the elevated tariff rates will still contribute to stagflation and slow economic growth [6].