凯德（北京）投资基金管理有限公司：库格勒认为美联储当前在判断经济时面临困难

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve faces unprecedented challenges in assessing economic potential due to rapid changes in trade policy and prior inventory accumulation by U.S. households and businesses [1][3] - Uncertainty surrounding tariffs and trade negotiations complicates predictions for economic growth and inflation trends [1][5] - Lower tariffs could potentially stimulate economic growth, influencing market expectations regarding the frequency of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][5] Economic Data Summary - Despite continued growth in the U.S. economy, a sharp increase in imports has led to a contraction in economic output [3] - Advance purchasing by households and businesses to avoid tariff increases has temporarily boosted consumption but may lead to decreased demand in the future, posing risks for economic slowdown [3] - The Federal Reserve may opt to maintain current interest rates until the economic outlook becomes clearer, supporting the recent decision to keep rates unchanged to manage inflation risks [3][5] Challenges and Outlook - The complexity and challenges in the current economic environment are underscored by fluctuating trade policies, global economic uncertainty, and changing consumer behavior [5] - Despite these challenges, there is cautious optimism regarding the existing monetary policy's ability to adapt to potential future economic changes [5]