Guosen Securities(SZ:002736) Xin Lang Zheng Quan·2025-05-13 09:51Core Viewpoint - Guosen Securities is planning to acquire 96.08% of Wanhua Securities for a transaction price of 5.192 billion yuan, but the valuation raises concerns due to its high price-to-earnings ratio and questionable profit forecasts [1][11][12]. Valuation Analysis - The valuation of Wanhua Securities is approximately 5.4 billion yuan based on both income and asset-based methods, with minimal appreciation rates of 0.47% and 0.15% respectively [2][3]. - The projected price-to-earnings ratio for Wanhua Securities in 2024 is 84 times, significantly higher than the average of 51.39 times for 49 listed securities firms [11][12]. Profit Forecast Concerns - The profit forecast for Wanhua Securities from 2025 to 2029 shows a total net profit exceeding the total net profit of the past 20 years, raising questions about the accuracy of these projections [5][6]. - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 305.87 million yuan, 412.29 million yuan, and 538.66 million yuan respectively, which are all higher than historical performance [3][4]. Business Segment Analysis - The projected investment banking revenues for Wanhua Securities from 2025 to 2029 are expected to grow significantly, with annual increases predicted to exceed 20%, despite historical revenues not surpassing 80 million yuan [6][8]. - The current lack of equity investment banking projects at Wanhua Securities raises doubts about the feasibility of achieving the projected income levels [10]. Financial Health of Guosen Securities - Guosen Securities reported a decrease in net capital from 821.40 billion yuan in 2023 to 742.78 billion yuan in 2024, indicating potential liquidity issues [18]. - The company achieved a revenue of 20.167 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 16.46%, with net profit rising by 27.84% [18].