ETO Markets市场洞察：黄金多头惨遭“空袭”，CPI数据或成“救命稻草”？

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price has shown resilience and rebounded after significant fluctuations, reflecting a complex interplay of geopolitical and macroeconomic factors [1][3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold prices stabilized after hitting a low of $3207.73 per ounce, reaching a peak of $3260.47 per ounce during the day, with a daily increase of 0.8% [1] - The recent volatility in gold prices was primarily triggered by a breakthrough in US-China trade relations, where both parties agreed to significantly reduce tariffs [3] - The agreement entails the US reducing tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%, while China will lower tariffs on US goods from 125% to 10%, boosting global risk appetite and leading to a sell-off in gold [3] Group 2: Analyst Insights - ETO Markets' chief strategist noted that the tariff reduction marks a "fragile easing period" in global trade, suggesting that while short-term risk sentiment may suppress gold prices, there remains potential demand for gold as a safe-haven asset due to execution details of trade agreements and geopolitical tensions [4] - The rebound in gold prices is supported by three main factors: adjustments in economic growth expectations, a technical correction in the dollar, and fluctuations in inflation data [4] Group 3: Federal Reserve Signals - Recent comments from Federal Reserve Governor Kugler indicated that easing trade tensions may reduce the risk of an economic "hard landing," thereby diminishing the immediate necessity for interest rate cuts [5] - This statement led to a significant drop in the probability of a rate cut in July from 65% to 42%, and the expected annual rate cut was reduced from 55 basis points to 35 basis points, impacting the cost of holding gold [5] Group 4: Upcoming Economic Indicators - The focus is on the upcoming US May CPI data, which could determine the direction of gold prices; a core CPI increase above 0.3% may strengthen inflation concerns and challenge the dollar index, while lower-than-expected data could reignite rate cut expectations, potentially pushing gold prices towards $3300 [6] Group 5: Trading Strategies - Short-term traders are advised to monitor the $3200-$3280 range for potential breakouts, with a recommendation to consider light short positions if gold falls below $3200 post-CPI data [7] - Long-term investors are encouraged to maintain gold's strategic position in their portfolios, as ongoing geopolitical conflicts, central bank gold purchases, and expectations of declining real interest rates continue to provide long-term support [7] Group 6: Diverging Institutional Views - There is a notable divergence in market views on gold's future; Citibank has lowered its three-month target price for gold to $3150, citing delayed Fed policy shifts, while Goldman Sachs maintains that $3300 is not a ceiling, emphasizing ongoing de-dollarization trends and demand from emerging markets [9] Group 7: Market Transition - The gold market is transitioning from being driven by geopolitical risks to being influenced by macroeconomic data, with the recent easing of US-China trade tensions reducing the risk premium on gold, yet persistent global economic recovery imbalances and central bank policy uncertainties continue to support gold prices [10]