关税战美国暂时认怂，前路如何？

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the U.S. is likely to back down in the trade war with China, as evidenced by the recent decision to cancel most tariffs after April 2025 and only retain 10% tariffs, while suspending an additional 24% for 90 days [1][9][10] - China has responded to U.S. tariffs with its own measures, imposing tariffs on various American goods, resulting in a total of 30% tariffs on Chinese exports to the U.S. [1][3] - The trade relationship between the U.S. and China remains significant, with nearly $700 billion in trade expected in 2024, highlighting China's importance as a major export market for the U.S. [3][4] Group 2 - China's export dependency on the U.S. has decreased from 19.2% in 2018 to 14.7% in 2024, indicating a shift towards diversifying its trade relationships [7] - The Chinese government has implemented monetary policies, such as interest rate cuts and reserve requirement reductions, to stabilize its economy amid the trade tensions [7] - China has also employed non-tariff measures, including reducing imports of U.S. agricultural products and imposing export controls on rare earths, demonstrating its ability to counter U.S. actions [7][15] Group 3 - The U.S. faces significant domestic challenges, including stock market declines and public discontent, which may pressure the administration to ease trade tensions with China [9][10] - The upcoming 90-day period for the suspension of additional tariffs will be critical, as China is expected to maintain its stance without yielding to U.S. demands [12][13] - China's confidence in its economic resilience suggests that it is well-prepared for ongoing trade confrontations, with a belief that the U.S. will struggle more in the long run [13][15]