美元一日狂欢后暗藏杀机？期权市场先露马脚！

Group 1 - The dollar index declined by 0.4%, with traders skeptical about the sustainability of the recent dollar gains despite easing trade tensions [1] - As of this week, nominal value of dollar short positions totaled approximately $61 billion, exceeding $55 billion in dollar long positions [1] - Optimism regarding a trade truce between the US and China led to the dollar's best performance since the US presidential election, rising by 1% on Monday [1] Group 2 - Many banks, including Nordea and Rabobank, believe that despite the recent rebound, the dollar will decline in the long term, raising their forecasts for the euro and yuan [5] - Deutsche Bank's global head of foreign exchange strategy expressed caution regarding US assets due to concentrated risks, despite a more conciliatory US policy direction [4] Group 3 - The options market remains bearish on the dollar, with a risk reversal indicating long-term bearish sentiment, although slightly lower than the previous week [7] - Macquarie Bank strategists noted that the damage from the April tariff turmoil will limit the dollar's gains, predicting a return to depreciation [7]