高盛 ：人民币走强，台币暴涨，下一轮异动的又是哪个

Group 1 - The Taiwanese dollar (TWD) experienced a significant appreciation, with the USD/TWD exchange rate dropping 7-8% over two consecutive days in early May, marking a historical volatility record that affected overall Asian currency fluctuations [1] - The Central Bank of Taiwan stated that the appreciation was not due to pressure from the US, but rather driven by exporters concentrating their foreign exchange settlements [1] - Taiwanese life insurance companies are unlikely to sell off their US dollar assets in the short term, despite the pressure from TWD appreciation and rising hedging costs, as US Treasury bonds remain a scarce long-duration asset [1][5] Group 2 - The next potential focus for currency movements in Asia includes the TWD and Malaysian ringgit (MYR), which are expected to benefit from high dollar deposit ratios and strong export settlement potential [2] - The South Korean won (KRW) is anticipated to have room for appreciation due to its high correlation with USD/CNY amid a downward trend in both currencies [2] - The Singapore dollar (SGD) is expected to perform solidly in the long term, supported by diversified asset allocation by the central bank and its AAA credit rating [2] Group 3 - The Chinese yuan (CNY) is projected to remain stable with a slight strengthening trend, as policymakers prefer a stable exchange rate path despite tariff pressures and capital outflow risks [2] - The Hong Kong dollar (HKD) is expected to maintain a strong position within its linked exchange rate system, bolstered by robust southbound capital inflows and significant liquidity injections by the Monetary Authority [2] - The Indian rupee (INR) faces pressure from geopolitical tensions and potential foreign exchange reserve accumulation by the Reserve Bank of India, making it difficult to outperform other high-yield currencies in the short term [2] Group 4 - The Indonesian rupiah (IDR) is considered undervalued, with expectations for a rebound due to manageable fiscal deficit risks and lower oil prices reducing subsidy expenditures [2]