三层制度安排破解消费不振难题

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the "resident asset-liability balance sheet crisis" in China, driven by a real estate-centric wealth accumulation model and credit expansion, which is leading to a structural challenge in the economy. It emphasizes the need for a layered governance framework and institutional innovation to address this crisis and reshape consumption dynamics [2][3][4]. Group 1: Asset-Liability Structure - The unique asset-liability structure of Chinese households is heavily reliant on real estate, with median housing asset ratios in major cities ranging from 61.5% to 72%, significantly higher than in the US and Germany [4]. - The long-term dominance of mortgage loans has led to a rigid increase in household leverage, creating a mismatch in asset-liability durations that exacerbates financial pressures during economic downturns [5][6]. Group 2: Consumption Dynamics - Traditional demand management policies are facing limitations in effectiveness, as short-term consumption stimulus tools do not address the long-term psychological uncertainties affecting consumer confidence [6][7]. - The high savings rate among residents, with 58% preferring to save more, reflects a rational response to increasing future uncertainties, indicating a structural contradiction in the economy [7][8]. Group 3: Institutional Innovation - A three-tier governance framework is proposed to address the asset-liability crisis, focusing on building a social safety net, upgrading livelihood guarantees, and reshaping development momentum [9][10]. - The first tier emphasizes enhancing social security systems to alleviate residents' concerns and improve risk tolerance [9]. - The second tier involves institutional reforms in education, healthcare, and housing to reduce future expenditure uncertainties and stimulate consumption [10][11][12]. - The third tier focuses on fostering new productive forces through innovation in technology and management, aiming to create high-value jobs and optimize income distribution [13][14][15]. Group 4: Economic Transition - The transition from debt-driven growth to consumption-driven development requires structural reforms in social security, market resource allocation, and income distribution [16]. - The article highlights the importance of activating consumption potential among the population by addressing the "high savings-low consumption" dilemma through effective policy measures and institutional changes [16].