美联储继续“按兵不动”

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5%, marking the third consecutive pause in rate cuts since the initiation of the easing cycle in September last year [2][3] - The Fed emphasized rising risks of high unemployment and inflation, indicating a cautious approach to future monetary policy adjustments [3][4] - The uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook has increased due to tariff policies, which have led to concerns about inflation and economic slowdown [3][5] Group 2 - The first quarter GDP growth rate for the U.S. was reported at -0.3%, the lowest since Q2 2022, primarily affected by a significant increase in imports and a decrease in government spending [6][7] - The trade deficit reached a historical high of $162 billion in March, with imports rising by 5% to $342.7 billion, marking the fourth consecutive month of record imports [6][7] - Despite the economic slowdown, the labor market remains strong, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 177,000 in April, surpassing expectations [8] Group 3 - The Fed is expected to maintain a wait-and-see approach, with no immediate rate cuts anticipated before the expiration of the 90-day tariff suspension on July 8 [4][9] - The potential for a recession remains, but the labor market's resilience may keep the unemployment rate near neutral targets, focusing Fed policy on inflation [10] - Market attention is on the progress of trade negotiations, which could influence future monetary policy decisions [10][11] Group 4 - The uncertainty from tariff policies has led to increased volatility in the stock market, with major indices experiencing declines year-to-date [11] - The bond market has faced pressure due to concerns over rising inflation and fiscal policy uncertainties, although yields have recently shown signs of retreat [11][12] - Gold investment demand has surged amid global trade tensions and economic recession fears, with a long-term bullish outlook despite potential short-term adjustments [12]