5年后，现在100万的房子还值多少钱？王健林和马光远看法一致

Core Insights - The current real estate market is experiencing a significant decline, with new construction expected to drop from 2.2 billion square meters in 2020 to over 600 million square meters by 2024, a reduction of over 60% [1] - New home sales have also plummeted from 1.8 billion square meters in 2020 to 500 million square meters last year, reflecting a similar decline of nearly 60% [1] - Industry leaders Wang Jianlin and Ma Guangyuan agree that the golden era of real estate has passed, emphasizing a shift towards more rational market behavior and a return of housing prices to levels aligned with local income [3][5] Market Factors - Supply and demand dynamics are crucial, with excessive past development leading to significant inventory issues, particularly in third and fourth-tier cities, where vacant properties are prevalent [7] - Policy adjustments are also significant, with recent reports indicating a commitment to increase affordable housing supply, which may divert demand from the commercial housing market and suppress price growth [7] - Economic conditions, including global slowdowns and potential income declines, could further impact housing demand and prices, making consumers more cautious in their purchasing decisions [7] Regional Variations - Despite overall downward pressure on prices, first-tier cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen, along with some strong provincial capitals, are expected to maintain stable housing demand due to their economic strength and population attraction [9] - In contrast, the outlook for ordinary cities is less optimistic, with the value of a 1 million yuan property potentially dropping to 800,000 or even 700,000 yuan over the next five years, indicating limited opportunities for price appreciation [9]