Netflix Rally Could Cool As Trade Relief Shifts Focus, JPMorgan Still Bullish

Core Viewpoint - JPMorgan analyst Doug Anmuth maintains an Overweight rating on Netflix Inc with a price target of $1,150, highlighting the company's strong performance and defensive subscription nature amidst macroeconomic uncertainties [1][7]. Group 1: Financial Performance and Projections - Netflix shares have increased by 30% from post-tariff lows, outperforming the S&P 500's 15% rise, driven by its leadership in streaming and subscription model [1]. - Anmuth projects advertising revenue (excluding subscription) to reach $3.0 billion in 2025, more than doubling from $1.4 billion in 2024 [4]. - The analyst anticipates average growth rates of +13% for foreign-exchange-neutral revenue, +22% for operating income, +24% for GAAP EPS, and +30% for free cash flow in 2025 and 2026 [8]. Group 2: Strategic Initiatives and Content - Heading into Netflix's Upfronts, updates on Ad Tier MAUs and expansion of the Netflix Ads Suite are expected, along with a focus on key Live/Sports content [2]. - Netflix is projected to have over 60 million Ad Tier subscribers by the end of 2025, correlating with an estimated 140 million+ MAUs [3]. - The content slate for 2025 includes significant releases such as "Nonnas," "Sirens," and "Squid Game" Season 3, indicating a strong lineup [4]. Group 3: Market Position and Employment - Netflix produces original content in over 50 countries, with more than 50% of its content produced internationally, while also maintaining significant contributions to the U.S. economy [6]. - The company employs over 9,000 full-time staff in the U.S. and occupies substantial corporate and studio space, reflecting its strong operational footprint [6]. - Anmuth's bullish thesis includes expectations of healthy double-digit revenue growth and continued operating margin expansion, alongside increased investments in content and ads [7].