2025年，该“尽快买房”还是“继续观望”？马云、李嘉诚观点一致

Core Viewpoint - The domestic real estate market in China is experiencing a long-term adjustment, with significant declines in both sales volume and prices, prompting various government policies aimed at stabilizing the market and encouraging home purchases [1][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - In 2024, the national sales area of commercial housing is expected to decrease by 11.3% year-on-year, with sales revenue declining by 15.7% [1]. - The new residential price index in 300 cities is projected to drop by 3.2% year-on-year, while the second-hand residential price index is expected to fall by 5.1%, marking the third consecutive year of overall price decline [1]. Group 2: Government Policies - Local governments, except for core areas in first-tier cities, have largely relaxed purchase restrictions and increased the upper limit for housing provident fund loans [3]. - Banks have reduced mortgage rates to below 3% and lowered down payment ratios to 1.5% [3]. - Tax authorities have provided exemptions on deed tax and value-added tax for homebuyers [3]. Group 3: Expert Opinions - Jack Ma emphasizes that housing should be for living, not speculation, suggesting that it may be a good time for first-time buyers and those looking to upgrade their homes [3][5]. - Li Ka-shing notes that the market is returning to rationality, and decisions should be based on personal financial situations and family needs when prices reach reasonable levels [5]. Group 4: Buyer Recommendations - For first-time and upgrading homebuyers, 2025 is seen as a favorable time to purchase due to a significant average price drop of 30% since 2022 and ongoing supportive policies [6]. - Speculative buyers are advised to "continue to observe" as there remains considerable market bubble, particularly in first-tier cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen, where price-to-income ratios exceed 40 [7][8]. - Many industry insiders believe that while core areas in first-tier cities may see price increases, third and fourth-tier cities have already experienced significant declines, suggesting a more stable environment for potential buyers in those areas [8].