全球铜贸易流向剧变的原因是……

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant impact of U.S. tariffs on copper imports, initiated by former President Trump, which has led to dramatic fluctuations in copper prices and inventory movements in the global market [1][2][3]. Group 1: Tariff Implementation and Market Reactions - On February 10, 2025, Trump signed an executive order imposing a 25% tariff on all imported steel and aluminum, which quickly raised domestic prices [1]. - Following this, on February 26, the U.S. government extended tariffs to copper, marking it as a new battleground in the trade war [1][2]. - By March 4, the COMEX-LME copper price spread surged to $950/ton, prompting traders to transfer LME Asian inventories to the U.S., with a single-day drop of 9,050 tons in LME Asian inventory [1][2]. Group 2: Price Fluctuations and Inventory Changes - On March 13, copper prices soared to $5.25/pound (approximately $11,574/ton), a 25% increase from the 2024 average, while U.S. copper imports surged to 500,000 tons, far exceeding the normal level of 70,000 tons [2]. - LME copper inventory decreased by 12%, exacerbating supply-demand mismatches [2]. - After the unexpected exemption of copper products from tariffs on April 2, copper prices corrected downward, reaching a low of $8,105/ton amid fears of a global recession [2]. Group 3: Future Implications and Strategic Moves - The U.S. Department of Commerce is set to submit a report on copper tariffs by November 22, 2025, with a final decision expected by March 30, 2026, creating uncertainty in the copper market [3]. - As of May 12, COMEX copper inventory reached 163,400 tons, a six-year high, while LME inventory fell to 190,700 tons, indicating a significant shift in global copper stockpiles [3]. - The COMEX-LME price spread peaked at $1,643/ton on March 26, reflecting the market's volatility due to tariff uncertainties [3]. Group 4: Broader Economic Context - The article highlights the U.S. strategy to manipulate global copper trade through tariffs, aiming to force the return of copper-related manufacturing to the U.S. and curb China's copper industry growth [3][4]. - The relationship between U.S. manufacturing and copper prices is noted, with a strong correlation between China's manufacturing activity and copper prices, as China accounts for 56% of global refined copper consumption [6][7]. - The ongoing trade tensions and tariff strategies are seen as part of a broader effort by the U.S. to maintain its economic dominance amid rising competition from China [6][18].