黄金现货价格分析

Group 1: Tariff Policy Dynamics - The recent US-China tariff truce has temporarily suppressed demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, with gold prices dropping to $3,207 per ounce [3] - The tariff agreement, which includes a 90-day buffer period, alleviates concerns over escalating trade tensions, but uncertainty remains regarding future negotiations, potentially supporting gold prices in the long term [3] Group 2: Supply Chain Costs and Inflation Expectations - Tariff policies indirectly affect gold pricing by increasing cross-border trade costs and causing fluctuations in the premium for refined gold, with the London LBMA spot premium varying between $0.3 to $0.5 per ounce [4] - Recurrent global trade tensions could exacerbate supply chain disruptions, reinforcing gold's anti-inflation properties [4] Group 3: Geopolitical Crisis in the Middle East - Escalating conflicts in the Middle East, particularly the Israeli airstrikes in Gaza, have heightened market fears and increased the attractiveness of gold as a safe-haven asset [5] - Ongoing geopolitical events, including US engagements with Houthi forces and delays in Iran nuclear negotiations, have further boosted demand for gold as a "hard currency" [5] Group 4: Restructuring of Safe-Haven Assets - The appeal of US Treasuries and the US dollar as safe-haven assets has diminished, with gold emerging as the dominant safe-haven asset [6] - Gold prices reached historical highs, surpassing $3,500 per ounce, before experiencing a brief pullback to $3,255 per ounce, indicating sensitivity to geopolitical risks [6] Group 5: Market Structure Analysis - The US April CPI rose by 2.3%, the lowest since February 2021, yet the Federal Reserve remains cautious about interest rate cuts, leading to conflicting market signals [7] - If inflation continues to decline, expectations for future rate cuts could support upward movement in gold prices [7] Group 6: Technical Analysis and Market Sentiment - Key support levels for gold are identified at $3,000 and $2,960, while resistance levels are at $3,450 and $3,550 [8] - Current market indicators suggest a bullish trend, with potential for upward movement if key resistance levels are breached [8] Group 7: Market Outlook - Short-term volatility is expected due to the tariff policy buffer period and fluctuating risk appetite, which may lead to technical corrections in gold prices [8] - In the medium to long term, ongoing geopolitical tensions and rising recession risks, along with central bank gold purchases projected at 1,045 tons in 2024, indicate continued upward potential for gold [8] - Strategic recommendations include monitoring the $3,200-$3,300 support range for short-term opportunities and considering additional positions above $3,450 for long-term holders, targeting above $3,550 [8]