Core Viewpoint - The success of Laopu Gold (06181) is attributed to its adherence to traditional craftsmanship, brand value creation, and focus on the high-end market, but it still needs time to fully establish its brand culture and artistic value to become a true luxury brand [1] Group 1: Winning Strategies - Laopu's success is primarily due to three factors: a long-term focus on the high-end market, creating luxury attributes similar to Moutai, a unique production process leading to product scarcity, and a pricing model that reinforces its luxury positioning [2] - The brand is deeply associated with the concept of ancient gold, emphasizing traditional craftsmanship and cultural value, which differentiates it from ordinary gold jewelry brands [2] - Laopu adopts a Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) model with self-operated stores, ensuring standardized management and high service quality, which enhances brand image and storytelling [2] Group 2: Revenue Growth Potential - The company is expected to experience significant revenue growth over the next three years due to its brand lifecycle being in the growth stage and an anticipated increase in market share in the ancient gold segment to at least 8% by 2028, leading to a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 40% from 2024 to 2028 [3] - Laopu's current number of stores in China is lower than that of other gold jewelry brands and international luxury brands, indicating substantial room for expansion [3] - The high-end product positioning and rich cultural elements suggest that Laopu has considerable potential for growth in overseas markets [3] Group 3: Price Correlation with Gold - Laopu's stock price has a very high correlation with gold prices (correlation coefficient R of 0.94), and the expectation of rising gold prices in the medium to long term is likely to support Laopu's stock performance [4] - The continuous increase in gold prices is expected to maintain consumer enthusiasm for purchasing gold jewelry, benefiting Laopu due to its high gold content and pricing mechanism [4] Group 4: Valuation and Investment Appeal - Laopu Gold is currently trading at 27x 2025 P/E and 19x 2026 P/E, which is significantly higher than the average valuation of Chinese gold jewelry brands, reflecting its higher growth potential and profitability [5] - The company's valuation remains attractive compared to peers when using the PEG ratio, and further validation of its luxury brand positioning could lead to an increase in its valuation [5]
浦银国际：首予老铺黄金(06181)“买入”评级 目标价857港元