证券研究报告 2025年05月26日 贵金属 老铺黄金(06181.HK)公司深度报告：老铺黄金十问十答 评级：增持(维持) 马川琪(证券分析师) 廖小慧(证券分析师) S0350523050001 S0350524080002 macq@ghzq.com.cn liaoxh@ghzq.com.cn 近期走势 126% 352% 578% 804% 1029% 2024/06/28 2024/09/26 2024/12/25 老铺黄金 恒生指数 | 近期走势 | | | 市场数据 | 2025/05/23 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1029% | 老铺黄金 | 恒生指数 | 当前价格（港元） | 826.50 | | 804% | | | 52周价格区间（港元） | 60.95-881.00 | | | | | 总市值（百万港元） | 142,717.29 | | 578% | | | 流通市值（百万港元） | 115,275.06 | | 352% | | | 总股本（万股） | 17,267.67 | | 126% | | | 流通股本（万股） | 13,94 ...

老铺黄金 20250522 摘要 际化。 老铺黄金受益于市场规模、竞争优势和运营体系，在高端黄金市场（约 1,200 亿）中通过产品创新实现差异化，如金镶钻、金胎烧蓝等，使其 产品更具时尚感和国际化。 老铺黄金正加速破圈，2025 年 1-4 月 SKP 和万象系商圈销售额同比增 长 233%，4 月仍保持 100%以上增长。新店如上海港汇恒隆开业首周 销售额达 7,000 万元，品牌认知度和接受度不断提升。 老铺黄金在北京 SKP 商圈预计 2025 年销售额达 24-25 亿元，远超周大 福（1.5-1.6 亿元）。万象体系中，老铺月销达 2 亿元，显著高于新锐 古法金企业。国际珠宝品牌普遍下滑，老铺则实现翻倍增长。 老铺黄金的消费者包括：从国际奢侈品转向的消费降级人群、传统大克 重黄金珠宝消费升级人群以及具有收藏属性的人群。与卡地亚、Tiffany 会员的重叠度显著提升。 老铺黄金单店销售额快速增长，从 2024 年的 2.3 亿元预计增长至 2025 年的 4.5-5 亿元，远超国际四大珠宝品牌。受益于黄金市场规模 和竞争环境，单店销售额有望达到 10 亿元以上。 Q&A 老铺黄金目前的投资逻辑是什么 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Equal-weight" rating to Laopu Gold [4] - The industry view is classified as "In-Line" [4] - The price target is set at HK$980.00, indicating a potential upside of 43% from the current price of HK$685.00 [4] Core Insights - The recent equity fund raising of HK$2.7 billion through primary share placement was unexpected, raising concerns among investors despite the necessity due to tight free cash flow [2][3][7] - The company plans to open 8 new stores in 2025, with a total capital expenditure exceeding Rmb400 million [2] - Management previously indicated no immediate capital pressure or fundraising plans, which adds to the surprise of the recent announcement [8] Financial Summary - The company reported an operating cash outflow of Rmb1.2 billion and a free cash flow of -Rmb1.3 billion in the second half of 2024, despite strong sales [2] - Projected earnings per share (EPS) are Rmb9.47 for FY 2024, increasing to Rmb38.62 by FY 2027 [4] - Revenue projections show a growth from Rmb8.5 billion in FY 2025 to Rmb34.8 billion in FY 2027 [4] - EBITDA is expected to rise from Rmb2.15 billion in FY 2025 to Rmb8.92 billion in FY 2027 [4] Market Context - The stock price is expected to react negatively and experience volatility in the near term due to the unexpected fundraising announcement [7] - Demand for gold remains strong, but emerging risks have been highlighted in recent reports [7] - The company declared a dividend per share (DPS) of Rmb6.35, totaling approximately Rmb1.07 billion [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company plans to raise approximately HKD 2.7 billion by issuing 4.31 million shares at a price of HKD 630 per share, which will be used primarily for expanding and optimizing its store network [7] - The company has completed the expansion of 12 stores and the renovation of 7 stores since its listing, indicating a strong focus on enhancing its retail presence [7] - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue growth, with projected revenues of RMB 19.59 billion, RMB 28.40 billion, and RMB 36.92 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 130.3%, 45.0%, and 30.0% [6][8] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be RMB 3.50 billion, RMB 5.30 billion, and RMB 7.19 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, with corresponding growth rates of 137.4%, 51.7%, and 35.6% [6][8] - The company is positioned as a leader in the traditional gold market, leveraging high-quality products, differentiated designs, and superior store service to enhance its luxury brand attributes [7] Financial Summary - The company's total market capitalization is approximately HKD 115.33 billion, with a circulating market capitalization of HKD 92.59 billion [3] - The company's debt-to-asset ratio stands at 38.13% [3] - Earnings per share are projected to increase from RMB 3.0 in 2023 to RMB 42.7 by 2027 [6] - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to be 27.5% in 2023, peaking at 47.1% in 2025 before declining to 36.1% by 2027 [6]

Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of RMB 1.2 billion for the fiscal year, representing a year-over-year increase of 15%[8]. - The company's revenue for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024, increased to approximately RMB 8,505.6 million, a growth of about 167.5% compared to RMB 3,179.6 million in 2023[21]. - Total revenue for 2024 reached approximately RMB 9,795.2 million, a year-on-year increase of 15.1% from RMB 8,505.6 million in 2023[22]. - Net profit surged by approximately 253.9% to about RMB 1,473.1 million in 2024, compared to RMB 416.3 million in 2023[25]. - Adjusted net profit for 2024 reached approximately RMB 1,501.7 million, a significant increase from RMB 424.9 million in 2023, reflecting a growth rate of about 253.5%[34]. User Engagement and Market Expansion - User data showed an increase in active users to 5 million, up 20% from the previous year[8]. - The company aims to establish itself as the leading brand in traditional Chinese gold and a top global gold brand through continuous product innovation and international market expansion[20]. - Market expansion plans include entering three new cities in China, projected to increase market share by 10%[8]. - Market expansion plans include entering two new international markets by Q3 2025, aiming for a 30% increase in market share[79]. Product Development and Innovation - New product launches included a premium gold jewelry line, expected to contribute an additional RMB 300 million in revenue[8]. - The company has created nearly 2,000 original designs and holds 249 domestic patents, 1,314 copyrights, and 228 foreign patents as of December 31, 2024, showcasing strong R&D capabilities[16]. - The company has introduced innovative products such as "gold inlaid diamonds" in 2019 and "gold body with blue burning" in 2022, significantly upgrading the product offerings in the Chinese gold jewelry industry[80]. Research and Development - The company is investing RMB 200 million in R&D for new technologies in gold processing, aiming to enhance product quality and reduce costs[8]. - R&D expenses grew by approximately 78.8% to RMB 19.2 million in 2024, reflecting an increase in R&D personnel and salaries[28]. - The company is investing in new technology development, allocating 5% of revenue towards R&D initiatives[79]. Marketing and Customer Engagement - A new marketing strategy focusing on digital channels is expected to increase customer engagement by 30%[8]. - The management team emphasized the importance of enhancing customer experience through innovative marketing strategies[79]. Operational Efficiency - The company reported a gross margin of 40%, consistent with industry standards, indicating strong operational efficiency[8]. - Gross profit for the same period reached approximately RMB 3,501.2 million, up by about RMB 2,169.2 million, representing a growth rate of approximately 162.9% from RMB 1,332.0 million in 2023[14]. - The average sales performance per store in 2024 was approximately RMB 328 million, ranking first among all well-known jewelry brands in mainland China[14]. Store Operations - The company opened 7 new stores and optimized 4 existing stores, contributing to incremental revenue growth[17]. - Offline store sales accounted for 87.6% of total revenue in 2024, generating RMB 8,534.8 million, while online platform sales contributed 12.4% with RMB 1,260.4 million[22]. Shareholder Returns - The board announced a dividend payout of RMB 0.10 per share, reflecting a commitment to returning value to shareholders[8]. - The board proposed a final dividend of RMB 6.35 per share for the year ending December 31, 2024, which is subject to approval at the annual general meeting on May 20, 2025[83]. Corporate Governance - The company has maintained high standards of corporate governance, as stated in the corporate governance report[156]. - The board consists of seven members, including four executive directors and three independent non-executive directors, ensuring a strong independent element in governance[177]. - The company has established four specialized committees under the board: Strategy Committee, Audit Committee, Nomination Committee, and Remuneration and Assessment Committee, providing professional opinions on key issues[167]. Employee and Training Initiatives - The total number of employees as of December 31, 2024, was 1,303, with 44% in sales and marketing roles[47][48]. - The company has implemented a training program to enhance employee skills and knowledge, focusing on various operational functions[104]. Sustainability and ESG Initiatives - The board of directors is focused on sustainability initiatives, aiming to reduce operational costs by 10% through eco-friendly practices[79]. - The company has established a clear ESG governance structure, integrating sustainability into its overall development strategy[97].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an Overweight (OW) rating on Laopu Gold with a price target of HK$1,111.00 for December 2025, reflecting a significant upside potential from the current price of HK$804.00 [2][10][28]. Core Insights - Laopu Gold aims to become the No.1 gold brand globally, with plans to expand its boutique network significantly, targeting six to eight new boutiques in 2025, following seven new openings in 2024, bringing the total to 36 [1][10]. - The company has set a long-term sales target of Rmb1 billion per shopping mall, with expectations of achieving over Rmb300 million in 2024, driven by strong sales momentum and enhanced product offerings [1][10]. - Laopu Gold's market share in the heritage gold segment is currently at 2%, with expectations of substantial growth due to the fast-growing market and store expansion opportunities [10][28]. - The report highlights that over 60% of sales in 2024 are expected to come from new customers, indicating a low penetration rate among target customers [1][10]. - Despite potential negative impacts on gross profit margin (GPM) due to rising gold prices, the company plans to mitigate these through advance procurement and strategic price increases [1][10]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Earnings Estimates - Revenue estimates for 2025 have been increased from Rmb16,070 million to Rmb18,780 million, and for 2026 from Rmb22,288 million to Rmb26,172 million [3][9]. - The report anticipates a revenue growth of 59% and an EPS growth of 65% over the period from 2025 to 2027 [10][28]. Market Expansion and Product Innovation - Laopu Gold is focusing on expanding its presence in both domestic and international markets, with plans for boutiques in cities like Tokyo, Osaka, Kuala Lumpur, and Bangkok [1][10]. - The company is also emphasizing product innovation, with around 40% of its products expected to contribute to 70% of sales, indicating a strong focus on diversifying its product offerings [1][10]. Financial Metrics and Valuation - The report projects a gross margin of 41.2% for 2024, with expectations of maintaining a bottom line GPM of 40% [1][10]. - The DCF-based valuation suggests a price target of HK$1,111, implying a 33x forward P/E for the next 12 months [11][29].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Laopu Gold is Equal-weight with a price target of HK$980.00, indicating a 22% upside from the current price of HK$804.00 [5]. Core Insights - Laopu Gold is a highly debated jewelry stock, with bullish investors focusing on short-term performance driven by gold prices and store openings, while bearish investors express concerns about long-term sustainability and execution risks [2][8]. - The report highlights a significant correlation between Laopu's stock valuation and gold prices, suggesting that Laopu could serve as a new proxy for gold investments [9][11]. Summary by Sections Bull vs. Bear Arguments - **Gold Price Impact**: Bulls argue that resilient gold prices will benefit Laopu, while bears warn that price volatility could lead to stock de-rating [3]. - **Fashion Risk**: Bulls believe Laopu's popularity reflects a lasting industry upgrade, whereas bears caution about the short cycles of fashion trends in China [3]. - **Store Opening**: Bulls see potential for revenue growth from new store openings, while bears highlight the risk of cannibalization and macroeconomic impacts on demand [3]. - **Execution Risk**: Bulls are optimistic about the founder's vision for store productivity, while bears question the feasibility of achieving such targets [3]. - **Competition**: Bulls note Laopu's established brand as a high-end heritage gold brand, while bears point out increasing competition with limited design differentiation [3]. - **Earnings Expectations**: Bulls project a net profit of Rmb6-7 billion for 2025, while bears suggest a lower consensus of Rmb3-4 billion, leading to concerns about high P/E ratios [3]. Financial Projections - For fiscal year 2025, Laopu is expected to generate a net profit of Rmb6-7 billion according to bullish estimates, with a projected P/E ratio of 18x [3][5]. - Revenue projections for 2025 are estimated at Rmb22.82 billion, with EBITDA expected to reach Rmb5.75 billion [5]. Market Dynamics - The report indicates that Laopu's revenue trends are largely supply-driven, with new store openings expected to contribute additional revenue with limited cannibalization [33]. - Laopu plans to expand its store presence both domestically and internationally, with openings in key locations such as Shanghai and Singapore [34]. Consumer Insights - A survey indicates that consumers primarily purchase gold jewelry for self-reward and daily wear, with product quality and design being the top factors influencing brand choice [12][16]. - Laopu is perceived positively in terms of product quality and brand heritage, which may enhance its competitive position in the market [17][19].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Company and Industry - The discussion revolves around the luxury goods industry, specifically focusing on the brand "老铺黄金" (Lao Pu Gold), which has a history of over 20 years in the collectibles market before transitioning to gold products in 2009 [1][2]. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Brand History and Positioning** - Lao Pu Gold is not a new brand; it has been established for over 20 years, initially as a collectibles brand before entering the gold market in 2009 [1][2]. - The brand's identity as a collector's brand contributes to its high-end positioning and unique appeal [2]. 2. **Luxury Brand Strategy** - The brand employs a luxury strategy, distinguishing itself from mass-market products. Luxury items are purchased not solely for their quality but for their authenticity and brand prestige [3][4]. - Unlike mass-market brands, luxury brands do not rely on promotions or celebrity endorsements, focusing instead on maintaining a high aesthetic standard [4][5]. 3. **Market Timing and Price Dynamics** - Lao Pu Gold's IPO in June 2024 coincided with a significant rise in gold prices, which has positively influenced consumer perception and brand value [6][7]. - The brand has implemented price increases in response to rising gold prices, enhancing the perception of value among consumers [7][9]. 4. **Consumer Perception and Brand Loyalty** - The brand's unique positioning fosters a sense of exclusivity and mystery, leading consumers to associate ownership with a higher social status [7][8]. - As consumers begin to understand the brand's aesthetic and value, they become advocates for the brand, effectively acting as marketing agents [10][11]. 5. **Sustained Growth and Future Outlook** - Lao Pu Gold has experienced significant growth, with projections indicating a 200% increase in 2024 and continued high growth rates expected in 2025 [13][14]. - The brand's strategy of maintaining exclusivity while expanding its influence is seen as a key factor in its ongoing success [12][14]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The discussion emphasizes that the design of luxury products is subjective and relies heavily on consumer perception and community discussions rather than objective standards [13]. - The brand's ability to maintain its aesthetic and market position without aggressive expansion strategies is highlighted as a unique strength [12][14].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry and Company Focus - **Industry**: Global Markets, Copper, ASEAN Banks, Japan Healthcare, EU Luxury - **Companies Mentioned**: Temu, DBS, UOB, OCBC, KBANK, SCBX, Takeda Pharmaceutical, Astellas Pharma, Laopu Gold Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Tariffs and Economic Outlook**: President Trump announced a 90-day pause on additional country-specific tariffs, maintaining prior tariffs and a 10% minimum portion of the "reciprocal" tariff. This is expected to lead to a total effective tariff rate increase of approximately 15 percentage points [1][4] 2. **Market Volatility**: Recent volatility in the Treasury market is attributed to cyclical risks and a shift in the supply/demand balance for Treasuries, with positioning and market liquidity exacerbating the situation [1][4] 3. **Copper Market Forecast**: A global copper surplus of 100,000 tons is projected for 2025, down from a previous deficit forecast. The copper price is expected to drop to an average low of $8,300 per ton in Q3 2025, with a recovery anticipated by late 2026 [4][11] 4. **Impact on Temu**: The US lifted China import tariffs to 104% and announced a tripling of de-minimis duties to 90%, which is expected to significantly impact Temu's US volumes and accelerate its shift to local warehouses and non-US markets [4] 5. **ASEAN Banks Earnings Projections**: EPS estimates for ASEAN banks have been cut by up to 9% due to higher macro risks from tariffs. Singapore banks are expected to see the largest net profit hit of 7%-9% from 2025 to 2027 [4][5] 6. **Japan Healthcare Sector**: The potential impact of additional tariffs on imported pharmaceuticals is being closely monitored, with companies like Takeda and Astellas expected to face higher costs of goods sold [5] 7. **EU Luxury Market**: The luxury goods sector may experience muted pricing impacts from US tariffs, but concerns remain regarding consumer confidence and wealth factors affecting global luxury growth [10] Additional Important Insights 1. **Laopu Gold's Expansion Plans**: Despite recent gold price volatility, Laopu Gold maintains robust consumer sentiment and plans to open new stores in key locations, aiming for a GMV of over RMB 1 billion per store [7][8] 2. **Bank of Ningbo Performance**: Bank of Ningbo reported a strong topline performance with improved net interest margin, but faced challenges with provisions and tax rates affecting net profit growth [6] 3. **Market Conditions for Stabilization**: Conditions for market stabilization include potential policy reversals, significant pricing discounts, or evidence that the economic impact of tariffs is less severe than anticipated [4] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current market landscape and future expectations across various sectors.

Summary of the Conference Call for Lao Pu Gold Company Overview - **Company**: Lao Pu Gold - **Industry**: Jewelry, specifically focusing on gold and diamond-inlaid products Key Points and Arguments 1. **2024 Performance**: Lao Pu Gold's performance in 2024 exceeded expectations with rapid growth driven by brand influence, product optimization, and store expansion [3][4] 2. **International Expansion**: The company plans to open stores in Singapore in 2025 and gradually enter the Japanese market, leveraging successful experiences from the Hong Kong and Macau regions [4][5] 3. **Gold Price Trends**: Despite recent volatility, gold prices are expected to rise steadily, positively impacting sales, especially for products priced at fixed rates [4][6] 4. **Diamond-Inlaid Gold Products**: This category has become a significant innovation for Lao Pu Gold, accounting for over 60% of sales, driven by the hardness advantage of traditional gold craftsmanship [4][7] 5. **Future Growth Potential**: Key focus areas include rising gold prices, the penetration of diamond-inlaid products, and the internationalization of the brand, all of which are expected to sustain high business growth [4][8] 6. **Sales Channels**: The company primarily relies on offline stores for sales, with online penetration rates comparable to industry averages at 10%-15%, indicating room for growth [4][9] 7. **Membership Growth**: The number of consumer members is accelerating, but there is significant potential to increase coverage among high-net-worth individuals [4][10] 8. **Development Stages**: The company's history can be divided into three stages: brand establishment (2009-2019), product innovation (2019-2023/24), and accelerated international expansion (2023-present) [4][11] 9. **Global Market Plans**: Future store openings will focus on Asian markets initially, followed by Europe and the Middle East, adapting product designs to local preferences [4][12] 10. **Chinese Jewelry Market**: The overall market exceeds 800 billion yuan, with gold jewelry being a major contributor. The ancient gold market is rapidly expanding, accounting for about 40% of the market [4][13] 11. **Cultural Preferences**: Different countries have varying preferences for jewelry types, with Asian countries favoring gold due to its value retention, while Western countries prefer diamond-studded jewelry [4][14] 12. **Competitive Landscape**: The jewelry industry is shifting from a channel-driven model to one focused on brand building, with consumer preferences evolving towards product value and service experience [4][15] 13. **Channel and Brand Strategies**: Lao Pu Gold emphasizes high-end positioning, direct sales, and innovative product development to enhance brand perception [4][16] 14. **Employee Incentives**: The company has established employee stock ownership plans to align core staff with long-term business goals [4][17] 15. **Investment Barriers**: High initial investment levels create competitive barriers, with significant capital required for technology and product development [4][18] 16. **Cost Structure**: Lao Pu Gold operates on a direct sales model with a gross margin exceeding 40%, offering better value compared to traditional jewelry brands that use franchise models [4][19] 17. **Product Matrix**: The company has developed a product matrix across different price levels to enhance brand positioning and reduce sensitivity to gold price fluctuations [4][20] 18. **Pandemic Response**: During the pandemic, the company maintained profitability due to its direct sales model and high fixed salary ratio, with recovery following the return of foot traffic [4][21] 19. **Impact of Rising Gold Prices**: In 2024, gold prices rose approximately 30%, while the company only adjusted prices by about 20 points, enhancing product value and driving revenue growth [4][22] 20. **Market Expansion Potential**: There is significant potential for growth in both domestic and international markets, particularly among high-net-worth individuals and in culturally aligned regions [4][23] 21. **Future Outlook**: The company is expected to continue benefiting from rising gold prices and successful international expansion, leading to substantial growth opportunities [4][24]