黄金现货价格未来半年走势分析（2025年5月-11月）

Group 1 - Geopolitical tensions, particularly the Middle East situation and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, are driving short-term price volatility in gold, with a potential breakout above $3,450 if conflicts escalate or negotiations fail [2] - The U.S. April CPI shows a year-on-year inflation rate of 2.3%, indicating a decline in inflation; however, the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance may limit expectations for interest rate cuts in July [3] - The dollar index is expected to remain high due to Trump's tariff policies, which may suppress gold prices in the short term, while the inflow of funds into Bitcoin ETFs is slowing, reducing the marginal substitution effect of cryptocurrencies on gold [3] Group 2 - Support levels for gold are identified at $3,000 and the $2,920-$2,960 range, while resistance levels are at $3,450 and $3,550 [3] - COMEX gold futures open interest has decreased for two consecutive weeks, indicating short-term speculative profit-taking, while global gold ETF holdings have increased to 3,200 tons, reflecting a 4.7% rise since the beginning of the year [3] Group 3 - Physical demand for gold is showing a mixed trend, with Chinese gold jewelry consumption declining by 8% year-on-year in Q1 2025, while investment demand for gold bars and coins has increased by 22% [3] - Central banks are expected to maintain gold purchases at 800-1,000 tons per year, with emerging market central banks like China and India having significant room to increase their gold reserves, which currently account for less than 10% [5] Group 4 - Three potential scenarios for the next six months are outlined: a bullish breakout with a 35% probability if the Fed cuts rates in July and Middle East tensions escalate, a consolidation phase with a 50% probability, and a bearish scenario with a 15% probability if a U.S.-China trade agreement is reached [5] - Short-term strategy suggests building positions in the $3,000-$3,100 range with a stop-loss below $2,920, while a wave strategy recommends adding positions after a breakout above $3,450 with targets of $3,550-$3,650 [5]