Core Viewpoint - The recent rebound of the US dollar following the easing of US-China trade tensions is seen as temporary, with expectations of a prolonged "dollar bear market" emerging due to the chaotic economic policies of the Trump administration [1][4]. Group 1: Institutional Investor Sentiment - Many large hedge fund clients are indicating that they have not yet significantly reduced their dollar exposure, despite the ongoing trade tensions and market volatility [2]. - Institutional investors, who have invested trillions in US stocks and bonds over the past decade, are recalibrating their portfolios and reducing their dollar asset holdings, which is expected to exert significant selling pressure on the dollar [1][6]. Group 2: Economic Concerns and Market Reactions - The aggressive tariff policies initiated by the Trump administration have led to fears of "stagflation" or even a "deep recession" in the US economy, contributing to the decline in confidence in dollar assets [4][5]. - Following the recent trade truce between the US and China, the dollar index surged to a one-month high, but concerns about economic slowdown and rising inflation have led to significant sell-offs in US stocks and assets [5][6]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook for the Dollar - The total value of US securities held by foreign investors has doubled to a record $32 trillion over the past decade, and a large-scale sell-off of these assets could lead to a prolonged "super long-term bear market" for the dollar [6]. - Analysts predict a structural shift away from dollar assets, with expectations that the dollar's overvaluation will gradually correct as the advantages of US assets diminish [7]. Group 4: Predictions from Financial Institutions - Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank have both forecasted the end of the dollar bull market, citing factors such as reduced willingness to finance US deficits and a peak in US asset holdings [7]. - Deutsche Bank anticipates that the euro/dollar exchange rate will rise to 1.15 by the end of 2025 and further to 1.30, indicating a significant shift in global capital flows and economic policies in response to US trade policies [7].
美元“小阳春”难挡漫长“熊途”! 对冲基金们警告关税政策将引爆美元抛售潮
Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-05-14 02:59