市场在说什么？当纳指狂飙的时候，美债收益率却逼近高点，美元更是下跌

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market experienced a rebound, particularly in technology stocks, while U.S. Treasury yields rose unexpectedly despite a slowdown in inflation, indicating potential structural fiscal issues in the U.S. economy [1][4][10] Group 1: Inflation and Market Reactions - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April increased by 2.3% year-on-year, lower than the expected 2.4%, marking the lowest level since February 2021 [1] - Despite the lower inflation rate, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 2.4 basis points to 4.481%, contrary to expectations that lower inflation would lead to a decrease in yields [1][4] - The core inflation rate, excluding food and energy, remained at 2.8%, which aligns with expectations and may weaken market anticipation for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year [6] Group 2: Structural Fiscal Concerns - Analysts suggest that the recent rise in Treasury yields and the divergence from the dollar's performance indicate deeper structural fiscal problems in the U.S. [3][8] - The U.S. government is expected to issue over $2 trillion in debt, raising concerns about a lack of buyers, which could force the Federal Reserve to restart balance sheet expansion [3][7] - The Treasury plans to borrow $514 billion in the April to June quarter and $554 billion in the July to September quarter, with total borrowing exceeding $2 trillion annually, highlighting significant fiscal challenges [7] Group 3: Dollar and Yield Relationship - There is a notable disconnection between the dollar and Treasury yields, which traditionally move in tandem; this disconnect raises concerns about a potential deeper collapse of the dollar [3][10] - Analysts from Bravos Research indicate that further increases in interest rates may be necessary to stabilize the dollar, suggesting a real risk of a deeper collapse [10] - The market's perception of rising U.S. yields has shifted from a sign of strength to a signal of crisis, fundamentally altering the dollar's response to yield changes [10]