BlueberryMarkets蓝莓外汇:美元进入长期弱势周期,机构正集体逃离

Core Viewpoint - The warning from Jens Nordvig, founder of Exante Data, indicates that the recent rebound of the US dollar index is merely a "bear market rally," driven by the structural erosion of the dollar's dominance due to disruptive interventions in the global trade system by the Trump administration [1][3]. Group 1: Capital Flow Reversal - Long-term capital flows are reversing, with sovereign funds, pension funds, and multinational corporate treasury managers indicating a systemic reduction in the $32 trillion dollar asset allocation accumulated over the past decade [3]. - Although these investors have not yet taken substantial action, they are waiting for the right moment to reduce their dollar exposure, which could lead to significant market shifts [3]. - The dollar index has seen a cumulative decline of over 5% this year, despite a temporary rise to a monthly high of 105.8 due to easing US-China trade tensions [3]. Group 2: Tariff Policy Impact - The ongoing impact of tariff policies has led to three major chain reactions: a decrease in dollar settlement demand due to multinational supply chain restructuring, inflationary pressures forcing the Federal Reserve to maintain restrictive rates, and increased geopolitical risk premiums driving funds towards alternative assets like gold and cryptocurrencies [4]. - The global dollar reserve share has decreased from a peak of 65% in 2016 to 59%, with a notable correlation between this decline and tariff volatility [4]. - Major creditor nations, including Japan and China, have seen the largest reductions in US Treasury holdings since the financial crisis, indicating a pronounced trend towards de-dollarization in Asia [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The timeframe for potential pressure on the dollar is projected to be around the end of Q3, as inflationary pressures from tariffs ease, allowing the Federal Reserve to consider rate cuts [4]. - The combination of structural capital outflows and cyclical easing policies could lead to significant volatility in the dollar index, potentially in double-digit percentages [4]. - The decline of dollar dominance is expected to occur gradually through systematic reductions by long-term investors rather than through sudden crises, as the largest asset owners begin to vote with their feet [5].