沪铜：5 月 13 日行情，宏观影响与供需变化

Core Viewpoint - The copper market is experiencing a slight decline in prices due to a combination of macroeconomic factors, supply constraints, and fluctuating demand from various industries [1] Macroeconomic Factors - Progress in US-China tariff negotiations has reduced market risk aversion, with only 26% of fund managers believing in a hard landing, down from 49% in April [1] Supply Dynamics - There is a tight supply of copper concentrate, with limited short-term increases in global supply despite advancements in technology and exploration capabilities [1] - The competition among smelters is intensifying, leading to downward pressure on processing fees for imported ore and squeezing profits [1] Demand Trends - SMM forecasts a decrease in the operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises to 71.01% in May, down 2.83 percentage points month-on-month but up 8.17 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The operating rate for the enameled wire industry is expected to decline to 69.81%, a decrease of 6.98 percentage points month-on-month [1] - In April, the production of photovoltaic modules by major Chinese companies reached 55 GW, a month-on-month increase of 3.38% and year-on-year stability [1] - The production of battery cells in April was 59.8 GW, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 10.13% but a year-on-year decrease of 1.97% [1] - Cumulative inventory of new energy vehicles in China reached 788,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 47% and a month-on-month increase of 8% [1] Inventory Levels - LME copper inventory decreased by 1,100 tons to 190,750 tons, while the Shanghai Futures Exchange copper warehouse receipts increased by 9,073 tons to 29,157 tons [1] Market Outlook - The market sentiment improved on May 13 due to progress in US-China tariff negotiations, although COMEX inventories continue to rise [1]