特朗普关税冲击 韩国经济预期遭“腰斩”

Core Viewpoint - The South Korean economy is facing significant challenges, with a government-funded think tank drastically lowering its growth forecast for 2025 to 0.8%, down from a previous estimate of 2% [1][2] Economic Outlook - The Korea Development Institute has cut its economic growth forecast for 2025, reflecting the impact of U.S. tariffs on the trade-dependent nation [1] - The revised forecast is a stark reduction from the earlier prediction of 1.6% made in February [1] Political Context - The economic challenges come at a critical time as South Korea prepares for presidential elections on June 3, with candidates vying to demonstrate their capability to handle the global trade war [1] - Leading candidate Lee Jae-myung of the Democratic Party has a support rate of 49.5%, while his main rival Kim Moon-soo from the People Power Party has 38.2% [1] Trade Relations - The South Korean economy has already shown signs of contraction in the first quarter, indicating that business activity is weakening before exporters fully feel the impact of new U.S. tariffs [2] - South Korea has faced a 25% tariff on key exports such as automobiles, steel, and aluminum, which was temporarily reduced to 10% for 90 days starting in early April [2] Policy Recommendations - The think tank suggests that a loose monetary policy is advisable to mitigate downward price pressures resulting from slowing domestic and foreign demand [2]