Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices experienced a slight decline, trading around $3233 after a significant drop earlier in the week, with a minor rebound on May 13, closing at $3249.86, up 0.47% [1] - The U.S. April CPI rose only 0.2%, below the expected 0.3%, which has tempered expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, contributing to a decline in the dollar index from a one-month high [1][2] - Despite current low inflation pressures, there are expectations that inflation may rise in the coming months due to tariff effects, potentially driving more investors to gold as an inflation hedge [1] Market Dynamics - The dollar index fell by 0.8% to 100.98, contrasting with the rise in gold prices, reaffirming the negative correlation between the dollar and gold [2] - Major brokerages like Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan have adjusted their expectations for Federal Reserve policy, with the first rate cut now anticipated to be delayed until September, and an expected total cut of about 51 basis points for the year [2] Geopolitical Factors - Ongoing global geopolitical tensions are providing strong support for gold, with uncertainties surrounding potential talks between Ukrainian President Zelensky and Russian President Putin, and the ongoing India-Pakistan conflict [4] - The market is closely watching three key variables: the progress of U.S.-China trade negotiations, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction, and the evolution of global geopolitical risks, particularly regarding the Russia-Ukraine talks and the India-Pakistan situation [4] Technical Analysis - Gold prices are currently facing downward pressure, with a potential challenge to the $3200 support level, as the market remains below the $3270 resistance level [5] - Short-term price movements indicate a return from a high of $3415, with the market testing a low of $3207, suggesting a possible continuation of the downward trend [5]
金荣中国:现货黄金小幅回落,仍震荡于本周低位区间徘徊
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-05-14 07:31