“五穷六绝”已成过去式，5月ETF市场如何博取高胜率？

Core Viewpoint - The traditional saying "Five Poor, Six Absolute, Seven Turnaround" does not apply to the A-share market, as historical data shows different trends in market performance during these months [3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance Analysis - Historical data over the past 20 years indicates that the average market performance in May and July is positive, with average gains of 1.52% and 2.26% respectively, while June shows a slight decline of 1.41% [3][4]. - The percentage of years with declines in May and June is 55%, while July shows a decline in 40% of the years [4]. - The average and median returns for the months of April to July are as follows: April (2.24%, -1.07%), May (1.52%, -0.05%), June (-1.41%, 1.50%), and July (2.26%, 0.41%) [4]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Market Trends - In May, the end of annual and quarterly report disclosures may enhance risk appetite, leading to increased investment in high-performing sectors [4]. - June typically sees a tightening of liquidity as the market prepares for mid-year reports, which can lead to a decrease in risk appetite [5]. - July benefits from significant meetings and concentrated mid-year report disclosures, which can signal quantitative easing and positively influence market performance [6]. Group 3: Sector Performance Insights - The top-performing sectors in May based on absolute return and win rate include Food and Beverage (2.5% return, 66.7% win rate), Pharmaceutical and Biological (2.1% return, 60% win rate), Electronics (3.1% return, 53.3% win rate), and Computer (2.4% return, 53.3% win rate) [7][10]. - The Food and Beverage sector is expected to benefit from easing cost pressures and recovering consumption scenarios, with a notable increase in retail and dining sales during holidays [8]. - The Pharmaceutical sector is favored for defensive positioning due to policy support and improved earnings, with a reported 18% year-on-year profit growth in Q1 [9].