美国4月CPI低于预期！美联储降息预期飙升，黄金多头能否乘势而上？

Group 1: Inflation Data and Market Expectations - The April CPI data in the US unexpectedly fell below expectations, leading to strong market anticipation for a shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [1][3] - April CPI rose by 2.3% year-on-year, marking the lowest level since February 2021, while core CPI remained at 2.8%, aligning with market expectations [1][3] - The significant drop in food prices, particularly a 13% decline in egg prices, was a key factor in lowering overall inflation levels [3] Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy Dynamics - Recent statements from Federal Reserve officials indicate a cautious approach, with a focus on maintaining high interest rates to ensure sustained inflation reduction [4] - Market expectations for a potential rate cut in September have strengthened, with a projected cumulative cut of approximately 56 basis points for the year [3][4] - The dollar index experienced fluctuations following the data release, reflecting market reactions to the changing inflation outlook [4] Group 3: Gold Market Opportunities - The combination of weak inflation data and rising rate cut expectations has positively impacted the gold market, with spot gold prices reaching recent highs [5][7] - Geopolitical tensions, including conflicts in the Middle East and ongoing issues in Ukraine, have further enhanced gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [7] - The World Gold Council reported a significant inflow of 226 tons into global gold ETFs in Q1 2025, indicating strong demand, particularly from the Chinese market [7]