华鑫证券：给予宝立食品买入评级

Core Viewpoint - Baoli Food (603170) has shown steady revenue growth but faces profit pressure due to structural adjustments, leading to a buy rating from Huaxin Securities [1][3]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Baoli Food reported total revenue of 2.651 billion yuan, a 12% increase year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 233 million yuan, a 23% decrease, primarily due to a one-time government compensation received in the previous year [2]. - For Q4 2024, total revenue reached 721 million yuan, an 18% increase, with net profit of 60 million yuan, a slight decrease of 0.5% [2]. - In Q1 2025, total revenue was 669 million yuan, a 7% increase, with net profit of 58 million yuan, down 4% [2]. Investment Highlights - Revenue growth is stable, but profit margins are under pressure due to product structure changes and increased competition [3]. - The company is expanding its supplier base and improving production efficiency, which may lead to cost optimization [3]. - The net profit margin decreased by 3 percentage points to 10.08% in 2024, reflecting the impact of non-recurring government subsidies [3]. Customer and Market Development - Rapid growth in new customers, with revenue from major clients like Yum maintaining stability [4]. - The company is leveraging production efficiency to meet customer demand, with a focus on expanding its product offerings [4]. - Revenue from the beverage and dessert ingredients segment increased significantly in Q1 2025, driven by changes in product categorization [4]. Channel Strategy - Direct sales revenue grew by 12% in 2024 and 8% in Q1 2025, with ongoing development of restaurant distribution channels [5]. - Initial partnerships with major retail channels like Sam's Club and Hema are expected to capitalize on retail market opportunities [5]. - Non-direct sales channels also showed growth, indicating a gradual recovery in consumer demand [5]. Profit Forecast - As a leading player in the Western-style food sector, Baoli Food is expected to maintain a positive growth trajectory, with projected EPS of 0.69, 0.79, and 0.90 yuan for 2025-2027 [6]. - The current stock price corresponds to PE ratios of 19, 17, and 15 for the respective years, supporting the buy rating [6].